Towards a research framework for poverty monitoring in tanzania fi nal draft




Yüklə 151.78 Kb.
səhifə11/11
tarix28.02.2016
ölçüsü151.78 Kb.
1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11

G. Measuring the Impact of Poverty Reduction Initiatives




1. Expenditure Tracking

An important part of monitoring the impact of various poverty eradication initiatives is to measure whether the allocated resources actually reach their intended targets. From both a development and fiduciary perspective, expenditure tracking provides assurances to government, citizens, and the Parliament and development partners that funds are being used for the allocated purposes.


In Tanzania, attempts at expenditure tracking are quite recent and there is still a significant learning process ahead. The first tracking study was carried out for the PER ’99. The PER ’00 included expenditure tracking for the Road Fund as a background paper. The PER ’01 commissioned a background study on expenditure tracking in two priority sectors – education and health. These studies all found significant diverting of “other charges” resources and non-disbursement of development expenditures, leading to a divergence between budgeted and allocated expenditures.


  • There is a need to establish a clear methodological framework that would provide guidance to those carrying out expenditure tracking, which includes both quantitative and qualitative dimensions. The intention would be to broaden the group of individuals who can carry out this kind of analysis. An important question would be whether Tanzania’s public expenditure management is in shape to meet the challenges of tracking expenditures intended for the poor.

A recent joint World Bank/IMF paper by the joint World Bank-IMF Public Expenditure Working Group assessed the public expenditure management systems of several HIPC-eligible countries (including Tanzania) (World Bank and IMF 2001). The paper concludes that for the majority of countries, systems require improvements before one could be confident that they are up to the task.

Two other approaches should also be considered in tracking public expenditures. The first is benefit incidence. More than the simple level of social spending, who benefits from such spending is often a more relevant question. Benefit incidence analysis, which examines the efficacy of targeting and the level of progressivity, does precisely that. Some definitions are in order. Following Castro-Leal et al (1999), government spending is considered to be well (poorly) targeted if the share of benefits to the poorest quintile from such spending exceeds (falls below) that of the richest quintile. Government spending is considered to be progressive (regressive) if the benefits to the poorest quintile exceed (are less than) the benefits to the richest quintile relative to their income or expenditure. Thus under progressive (regressive) spending, benefits are a smaller (larger) share of income or expenditure at higher levels of income. Demery (2000) provides a more extended exposition. This approach is even more powerful if gender is incorporated within it, so as to explore differential benefits for women and men within each quintile.
Previous benefit incidence analysis for Tanzania, that is now almost a decade old was not encouraging. It suggested that social sector spending is poorly targeted and often regressive. The poor are therefore benefiting much less than the level of social expenditures would suggest. Improving the benefit incidence of government health and education spending would thus help reduce inequality. With the new household budget survey coming out, this is an important area in which to update the analysis in order to gain a better sense of equity.
A second useful approach, which is more “quick and dirty” but equally useful is trying to map geographic pattern of expenditures with regional income distribution (obtained through poverty maps for example). This can give a quick picture of the incidence of spending (see Devarajan and Hossein 1998).
Specific questions could thus include:


  • What is the benefit incidence of spending in health and education in Tanzania? What are the gender differentials?




  • How do public expenditures match up with the geographic pattern of poverty and income distribution?


2. Safety Nets in Tanzania and Targeting

The term safety nets covers various transfer programs designed to play both a redistributive and risk reduction role in poverty reduction. The redistributive role aims to reduce the impact of poverty while the risk reduction role aims to protect households and communities against uninsured income and consumption risks. The balance between the two roles is determined by country-specific conditions. Social safety nets can take two main forms: income support or transfers. Income generation schemes are intended to provide income support to the vulnerable during a time of emergency by providing jobs. Under an income generation program, the recipient is obliged to work in exchange for the income received. Examples include labor-intensive public works programs or credit-based self-employment schemes. Safety net transfers can be in the form of cash or income transfers (pensions, child allowances) or in-kind (energy subsidies, feeding programs, food subsidies, housing subsidies). Unlike income generation schemes, this carries no obligation from the recipient.


Social funds help finance small projects identified and implemented by poor communities which often (though not always) provide co-financing. Social funds address a wide range of risk reduction objectives and often comprise both income generation and transfer aspects. For example, they include infrastructure building and public works, child and maternal feeding and nutrition programs, support for the setting up of microenterprises, support to small farmers, miners and fishermen, strengthening the social capital of communities, and immunization and other health care programs.
Social safety nets are an important component of reducing the vulnerability of the poor to economic shocks and crises. In Tanzania, while safety nets are scattered here and there, for example, some public works programs, there has been no comprehensive attempt to assess existing safety nets (Tsikata and Madete 2000 review Tanzania’s experience with public works programs). Over the PRSP period, safety nets will be especially important as many of the structural changes needed to accelerate economic growth will probably only take off in the medium-term. The PRSP is relatively silent, however, on a working definition of the vulnerable and on the status of safety nets.4
In all countries, at least three main types of vulnerable groups can be identified:



  1. the chronically poor whose income falls below the country’s poverty line (or other acceptable minimum) even during periods of economic growth;




  1. the temporarily poor, whose income levels fluctuate above and below an acceptable minimum during periods of natural and exogenous shocks; and




  1. those groups (transient poor or not), directly affected by adjustment or shocks in the economy (for example workers who have lost their jobs because of a bankrupt government owned or operated business/enterprise).

For policy purposes, it is important to distinguish between those poor people with the potential to move out (for example those of working age, in good health) and those who cannot do so in the short-term and will need longer-term help (i.e. the disabled, children, the infirm and the elderly) because of limited capacity to generate income.




  • Who are the vulnerable, what is the source of their vulnerability and what are good indicators to help identify them?




  • What aspects of the existing institutional framework can be used to facilitate this process?




  • Who is best placed to take the lead on collecting and maintaining a database on the vulnerable?

An assessment of existing safety nets that specifically addresses the targeting issue is critical. To the extent possible, this should address both formal and informal safety nets.




  • What safety nets exist on paper and in practice? What is the take-up rate or how many people are they reaching? What kind of viable and sustainable welfare services (including HIV/AIDS counseling) can be provided to vulnerable children and adolescents at community level, especially in poor rural and urban communities? How have safety nets been affected by HIV/AIDS?




  • Who are they reaching, in terms of geographic location, gender, age and income? If that information is not available what kinds of changes need to be made in the information system to allow that assessment to be made?




  • What roles can communities and local governments play in the assessment of government programs intended to target the poor?




  • How effective is the targeting mechanism? How is this linked with the varying administrative complexity of the different programs? How much does it cost to administer these programs and how does it compare internationally?




  • Overall, which are the most effective programs? Are any vulnerable groups not being addressed by the current set of safety nets?




  • What does all of this imply for the design of safety net programs in Tanzania?


References
Bagachwa, M. S. D. (ed) (1994), Poverty Alleviation in Tanzania: Recent Research Issues, Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam University Press.
Barrios, E., “Generating Small Area Statistics from Household Surveys Conducted by the National Statistics Office, Paper Presented at the MIMAP Technical Workshop at Punta Baluarte, Catatagan, Batangas, April 11-12, 1996.
Baylies, C. and J. Bujra (eds) (2000), AIDS, Sexuality and Gender in Africa, London, Routledge.
Cardoso, Eliana (1992) “Inflation and Poverty,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 4006, March.
Castro-Leal, F. et al (1999) “Do the Poor Benefit from Public Social Spending in Africa?” World Bank Research Observer, Volume 14, No 1, February.
Chachage, C.S.L. and J. Nyoni (2000), “Economic Restructuring and the Cashewnut Industry in Tanzania,” Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Agriculture Situation Analysis (TASA).
Dollar, D. and A. Kraay (2000), “Growth is Good for the Poor,” World Bank mimeo, March.
Easterly, W.R. and S. Fischer (2000), “Inflation and the Poor,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 2335, May.
EURODAD (2000), An Independent Guide to PRSP, Brussels.
Evans, A. with E. Ngalwa (2000), “Study to Investigate the Extent to which Poverty Reduction Policies, Programmes, Practices and Monitoring Systems are being Institutionalised in African Countries: Phase 1 Tanzania”, Prepared for the SPA PRSP Process and Monitoring Task Teams.
Fozzard, A. and F. Naschold (2001), “Review of Planning and Budgeting Systems in Tanzania”, Report Prepared for the Country Financial Accountability Assessment.
Hamner, L., F. Naschold and F. Harper (2001), “Tanzania: Review of the PRSP Medium-Term Targets”, Draft Report for DFIDEA (Tanzania), 28 March.
ILO (2001), “Time Bound Programme on the Worst Forms of Child Labour in Tanzania: Summary of Preliminary Results, Labour Force Survey-Child Labour Component (Quarter 1)”, IPEC, Dar es Salaam.
kuleana (1999), The State of Education in Tanzania, Mwanza.
Lustig, N. (1999), "Crises and the Poor: Socially Responsible Macroeconomics," Presidential Address, Fourth Annual Meeting of the Latin America and Caribbean Association, Santiago, Chile, October 22.
Mbilinyi, M. (1997), "Women Workers and Self-Employed in the Rural Sector" Report to ILO/Geneva.
Mbilinyi, M., B. Koda, C. Mung’ong’o and T. S. Nyoni (1999), “Rural

Food Security in Tanzania: The Challenge for Human Rights, Democracy and Development,” IDS, Rural Food Security Policy and Development Group, report presented to Launching Workshop (July).


Mbilinyi, M. (ed.) (2000), Gender Patterns in Micro and Small Enterprises of Tanzania. Dar Es Salaam/Rome, Ministry of Community Development, Women’s Affairs and Children (MCDWAC), Women’s Research and Documentation Project (WRDP), publisher AIDOS, Rome.
Mbilinyi, M. and T. Nyoni (2000), “Agricultural and Livestock Policy, 1997”, “Livelihoods and Incomes” and “Poverty Eradication Strategy” presented to Feedback Workshop on Policy Review Process of the Rural Food Security Policy and Development Group (RFS) Dar es Salaam, May.
Mung’ong’o, C.G. (2001), “Rural Food Security Policy and Development: An Analysis from the Grassroots Perspective in Njombe District” Report presented at the RFS Network Workshop, 3-4 May, Dar es Salaam.
Naschold, F., Fozzard, A. and Y. Tsikata (forthcoming) “Are Budgets Pro-Poor? The Case of Tanzania”, ODI Working Paper.
Pack, Howard (1999), “Poverty Reducing Policy Reforms,” Paper prepared for the Stiglitz Summer Research Workshop on Poverty, July 6 – July 8, 1999, Washington DC.
Rajani, R.R. (2001), “The Education Pipeline in East Africa” Report prepared for Ford Foundation, Nairobi.
Save the Children Fund (1999), “Recommendations: Based on Household Food Economy Assessments in Dodoma, Singida and Arusha Regions”, Dar es Salaam.
_____________(2001), “An Introduction to Save the Children (UK)’s Household Economy Approach”, Dar es Salaam.
Stewart, F. (1995), Adjustment and Poverty: Options and Choices, London and New York: Routledge.
Subbarao, K. et al. (1997), Safety Net Programs and Poverty Reduction: Lessons from Cross-Country Experience, Washington DC: The World Bank.
Tanzania, United Republic of:

Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (2001), “Revised Draft Agricultural Sector Development Strategy” Dar es Salaam, draft for consultation (30.5.01).


Ministry of Community Development, Women Affairs and Children (MCDWAC) with Vice President’s Office (2001a) “Recommendations for Integrating Gender into the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and Related Processes”, Dar es Salaam.
_______________(2001b), “Multi-Sectoral Workshop to Enhance Gender Perspectives in the PRSP”, Prepared by TGNP.

MCDWAC and UNICEF (2001), “Summary of Tanzania’s National Report on Follow-up to the World Summit for Children”, Dar es Salaam, draft.


Tanzania Coalition on Debt and Development (TCDD/PRSP) (2000), “Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Comments And Input From Civil Society Groups” Dar es Salaam.
Teklu, T. (1994), “Labor-intensive Rural Roads in Kenya, Tanzania and Botswana: Some Evidence on Design and Practice”, International Food Policy Research Institute mimeo, Washington DC.
Tsikata, Y. (2000), “Pro-Poor Macroeconomic Policies: A Primer”, Lecture Notes prepared for the Joint Africa Institute, Abidjan.
________ (2001), “A Review of the Poverty Monitoring Framework in Tanzania”, Draft report prepared for ODI.
Tsikata, D. and J. Kerr (eds) (2000) Demanding Dignity: Women Confronting Economic Reforms in Africa, Ottawa: Ontario: The North-South Institute.
Tsikata, Y. and Madete, L. (2000), “Private Sector Investment”, Paper prepared for the ILO Project Investment for Poverty-Reducing Employment.
UNICEF (2001a), “Programming Approach for Village Support to the Most Vulnerable Children” Dar es Salaam, Draft Concept Paper.
UNICEF (2001b), “Child mortality: Country Data-Tanzania” www.childinfo.org/cmr/Tnz/cmrtnz.html.
Vivian, J. (ed.) (1995), Adjustment and Social Sector Restructuring, New York: UNRISD.
Wangwe, S. and Tsikata, Y. (1999), “Macroeconomic Developments and Employment,” Report prepared for the ILO.
Winters, A. (1999), “Trade Liberalisation and Poverty,” Paper prepared for the Stiglitz Summer Research Workshop on Poverty, July 6 – July 8, 1999, Washington DC.
Wobst, P. (1999) “Structural Adjustment and Income Distribution in Tanzania: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis Using a 1992 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM),” Ph.D. dissertation, Institute for Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
World Bank (2001) Country Economic Memorandum, Washington D.C.: The World Bank.
World Bank and IFPRI (2000) Agriculture in Tanzania since 1986: Follower or Leader of Growth? Washington D.C.: The World Bank.
Yaqub, S. (1999), “How Equitable is Public Spending on Health and Education?” Background Paper to WDR 2000/1, September.

Annex 1



Participants in the Consultative Workshops Held May 14, 16 and 18 2001
Facilitators: Marjorie Mbilinyi (IDS) and Yvonne Tsikata (ESRF).


Participant

Affiliation
May 14 – Academics/Experts




Professor J. Semboja

REPOA

Dr. D. Mushi

REPOA

Professor S. Wangwe

ESRF

Professor H. K. Amani

ESRF

Dr. F. Musonda

ESRF

Ms. M. Manyanda

ESRF

Dr. Rutasitara

UDSM

Prof. S.L.S. Chachage

UDSM

Prof. A. Mascarenhas

IRA

Prof. O. Mascarenhas

University Library

Professor B. Ndulu

World Bank

Mr. A. Mufuruki

Info-Tech/CEO Roundtable

Mr. A.A. Zuki

CTI

Mr. J. Biswaro

JICA
May 16 – Civil Society




Ms. Mary Rusimbi

TGNP

Mr. R. Rajani

HakiElimu

Ms. L. Just

TANGO

Ms. W. Shariff

DFID






May 18 – Policymakers






Dr. G.M. Kamugisha

TRA

Mr. F.W. Magere

Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education

Mr. A.B. Nnunduma

Ministry of Water and Livestock Development

Mr. R. Musingi

President's Office, RALG

Mr. A.R. Ndyalusa

MCDWAC



1 As indicated, this will be expanded following completion of the Agricultural Sector Development and the Rural Development Strategies.

2 This exercise will have to assess the results coming out of the rural development strategy and the rural development policy to avoid duplication.

3 These estimates have to considered and revisited given the significant upward revision of GDP figures for Tanzania.

4 It is expected that the Participatory Poverty Assessment (PPA) will address at least some of these issues on vulnerability. Further questions should not duplicate the work of the PPA.

1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11


Verilənlər bazası müəlliflik hüququ ilə müdafiə olunur ©azrefs.org 2016
rəhbərliyinə müraciət

    Ana səhifə