Stat/11/80 8 June 2011 Population projections 2010-2060 eu27 population is expected to peak by around 2040




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STAT/11/80

8 June 2011

Population projections 2010-2060
EU27 population is expected to peak by around 2040
One person in eight aged 80 or more in 2060

The EU27 population is projected to increase from 501 million on 1 January 2010 to 525 million in 2035, to peak at 526 million around 2040, and thereafter gradually decline to 517 million in 2060. The EU27 population is also projected to continue to grow older, with the share of the population aged 65 years and over rising from 17% in 2010 to 30% in 2060, and those aged 80 and over rising from 5% to 12% over the same period.

These population projections1 for the period 2010-2060 are issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Population projections are scenarios that aim to provide information about the possible future size and structure of the population, and should therefore be considered with caution.

Strongest population growth in Ireland, Luxembourg, Cyprus and the United Kingdom

There are projected to be considerable differences between the Member States. Between 2010 and 2060, the population is projected to rise in fourteen Member States and fall in thirteen. The strongest population growth is projected to be found in Ireland (+46%), Luxembourg (+45%), Cyprus (+41%), the United Kingdom (+27%), Belgium (+24%) and Sweden (+23%), and the sharpest declines in Bulgaria (-27%), Latvia (-26%), Lithuania


(-20%), Romania and Germany (both -19%).

In 2060, the Member States with the largest populations would be the United Kingdom (79 million), France (74 mn), Germany (66 mn), Italy (65 mn) and Spain (52 mn).



A significant increase in the older population between 1960 and 2060

The EU27 population is expected to become older throughout the projection period, due in particular to relatively low fertility and an increasing number of people living to higher ages. This ageing process will occur in all Member States. In 2060, the share of the population aged 65 or more is projected to range from 22% in Ireland and 25% in the United Kingdom, Belgium and Denmark to 36% in Latvia, 35% in Romania and Poland and 33% in Bulgaria, Germany and Slovakia. Comparing 2060 with the situation one hundred years before, in 19602, the share of those aged 65 or more is expected to increase between two and six times in the Member States for which data are available.

In 2060, the share of the population aged 80 or more is projected to be 12% on average in the EU27, to range from 9% in Ireland, Cyprus and the United Kingdom to 14% in Spain, Italy and Germany. Compared with the situation one hundred years before, in 1960, the share of those aged 80 or more is expected to grow between five and eighteen times by 2060 in the Member States for which data are available.

In consequence, the old age dependency ratio in the EU27, i.e. the population aged 65 years and older divided by the population aged 15 to 64, is projected to increase from 26% in 2010 to 53% in 2060. In other words, there would be only two persons aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one in 2010. The old age dependency ratio is projected to be 60% or more in Bulgaria, Germany, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, and 45% or less in Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom. In 1960, the old age dependency ratio ranged from 10% to 19% in the Member States for which data are available, meaning that there were between five and ten persons aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 or more.



  1. The EUROPOP2010 “convergence scenario” is based on the population on 1st January 2010 and on the assumption that fertility, mortality and net migration will progressively converge between Member States in the long run. Alternative assumptions in a different conceptual framework would yield different results. Data on projections of the population can be found in the database on the Eurostat web site: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat under Population and Social conditions/Population/Population projections. The forthcoming Eurostat publication: Eurostat Population Projections 2010-based (EUROPOP2010): Methodology and results of a long-term scenario of demographic convergence will provide additional details on methodology.

  2. A more detailed analysis of the ageing of the EU and EFTA population in the 100 years from 1960 to 2060 can be found in the following report: Eurostat, Statistics in Focus, 23/2011 "The greying of the baby boomers: A century-long view of ageing in European populations", available free of charge in pdf format on the Eurostat web site.

Issued by: Eurostat Press Office:
Tim ALLEN

Tel: +352-4301-33 444

eurostat-pressoffice@ec.europa.eu


For further information:
Giampaolo LANZIERI

Tel: +352-4301-35 336

giampaolo.lanzieri@ec.europa.eu


Eurostat news releases on the internet: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat






Total population (000s)




Population at 1 January

Growth since 1.1.2010 (%)

2010

2035

2060

2035

2060

EU27

501 044

524 537

516 940

4.7

3.2

Belgium

10 840

12 473

13 445

15.1

24.0

Bulgaria

7 564

6 406

5 531

-15.3

-26.9

Czech Republic

10 507

10 782

10 468

2.6

-0.4

Denmark

5 535

5 954

6 080

7.6

9.8

Germany

81 743

76 478

66 360

-6.4

-18.8

Estonia

1 340

1 259

1 173

-6.1

-12.5

Ireland

4 468

5 512

6 545

23.4

46.5

Greece

11 305

11 605

11 295

2.7

-0.1

Spain

45 989

50 867

52 279

10.6

13.7

France

64 714

71 345

73 724

10.2

13.9

Italy

60 340

65 166

64 989

8.0

7.7

Cyprus

803

1 007

1 134

25.4

41.3

Latvia

2 248

1 963

1 672

-12.7

-25.6

Lithuania

3 329

2 977

2 676

-10.6

-19.6

Luxembourg

502

649

728

29.3

45.0

Hungary

10 014

9 575

8 860

-4.4

-11.5

Malta

413

413

387

0.0

-6.2

Netherlands

16 575

17 650

17 070

6.5

3.0

Austria

8 375

8 934

8 869

6.7

5.9

Poland

38 167

36 857

32 710

-3.4

-14.3

Portugal

10 638

10 786

10 266

1.4

-3.5

Romania

21 462

19 857

17 308

-7.5

-19.4

Slovenia

2 047

2 149

2 058

5.0

0.5

Slovakia

5 425

5 528

5 116

1.9

-5.7

Finland

5 351

5 725

5 744

7.0

7.3

Sweden

9 341

10 746

11 525

15.0

23.4

United Kingdom

62 008

71 874

78 925

15.9

27.3

Iceland

318

370

435

16.6

37.0

Liechtenstein

36

40

38

11.7

6.8

Norway

4 858

5 955

6 587

22.6

35.6

Switzerland

7 786

9 090

9 319

16.7

19.7

Older population




Percentage aged 65+

Percentage aged 80+

Old age dependency ratio* (%)

1960

2010

2060

1960

2010

2060

1960

2010

2060

EU27

:

17.4

29.5

:

4.6

12.0

:

25.9

52.6

Belgium

12.0

17.2

25.5

1.8

4.9

9.9

18.5

26.0

43.8

Bulgaria

7.4

17.5

32.7

1.0

3.8

12.8

11.2

25.4

60.3

Czech Republic

9.5

15.2

30.7

1.3

3.6

12.2

14.6

21.6

55.0

Denmark

10.5

16.3

25.5

1.6

4.1

10.1

16.4

24.9

43.5

Germany

11.5

20.6

32.8

1.6

5.0

13.5

17.0

31.3

59.9

Estonia

:

17.1

30.5

:

4.1

11.1

:

25.2

55.5

Ireland

11.1

11.3

22.0

1.9

2.8

9.0

19.2

16.8

36.6

Greece

:

18.9

31.3

:

4.6

13.3

:

28.4

56.7

Spain

8.2

16.8

31.5

1.2

4.9

14.2

12.7

24.7

56.4

France

11.6

16.6

26.6

2.0

5.2

11.0

18.7

25.7

46.6

Italy

9.3

20.2

31.7

1.3

5.8

14.1

14.0

30.8

56.7

Cyprus

:

13.1

27.4

:

2.9

9.2

:

18.6

47.6

Latvia

:

17.4

35.7

:

3.9

12.6

:

25.2

68.0

Lithuania

:

16.1

31.2

:

3.6

10.8

:

23.3

56.6

Luxembourg

10.8

14.0

26.4

1.5

3.6

10.2

15.9

20.4

45.0

Hungary

8.9

16.6

32.1

1.1

3.9

12.5

13.6

24.2

57.8

Malta

:

14.8

31.0

:

3.3

11.2

:

21.3

55.6

Netherlands

8.9

15.3

27.2

1.4

3.9

11.1

14.6

22.8

47.5

Austria

12.1

17.6

29.1

1.7

4.8

11.6

18.4

26.1

50.7

Poland

5.8

13.5

34.5

0.7

3.3

12.3

9.5

19.0

64.6

Portugal

7.8

17.9

32.0

1.1

4.5

13.5

12.4

26.7

57.2

Romania

:

14.9

34.8

:

3.1

13.1

:

21.4

64.8

Slovenia

:

16.5

31.6

:

3.9

12.7

:

23.8

57.6

Slovakia

6.8

12.3

33.5

1.0

2.7

12.1

11.1

16.9

61.8

Finland

7.2

17.0

27.0

0.9

4.6

10.3

11.6

25.6

47.4

Sweden

11.7

18.1

26.3

1.8

5.3

9.9

17.8

27.7

46.2

United Kingdom

11.7

16.4

24.5

1.9

4.6

9.3

18.0

24.9

42.1

Iceland

8.0

12.0

20.3

1.5

3.3

7.8

14.0

17.9

33.5

Liechtenstein

7.8

13.5

29.3

1.2

3.2

13.4

12.3

19.3

52.9

Norway

10.9

14.9

24.9

2.0

4.5

9.6

17.3

22.5

43.0

Switzerland

10.2

16.8

30.4

1.5

4.8

12.3

15.5

24.7

54.4

: Data not available

* The population aged 65 years and older divided by the population aged 15 to 64


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