United States Department of Agriculture
Office of the
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Long-term Projections Report
USDA Agricultural Projections to 2019
Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee
World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair
Economic Research Service
Farm Service Agency
Foreign Agricultural Service
Agricultural Marketing Service
Office of the Chief Economist
Office of Budget and Program Analysis
Risk Management Agency
Natural Resources Conservation Service
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
USDA Long-term Projections
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Ask for USDA Agricultural Projections to 2019 (OCE-2010-1).
USDA Agricultural Projections to 2019. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Long-term Projections Report OCE-2010-1, 100 pp.
This report provides projections for the agricultural sector through 2019. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. Provisions of current law are assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. The projections are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the report provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared during October through December 2009, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses.
Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect continuing U.S. and global adjustments to the recession of 2008-09 and the subsequent economic recovery. A resumption of steady global economic growth will support increases in consumption, trade, and prices in the longer run. Additionally, longrun developments for global agriculture reflect continued demand for biofuels, particularly in the United States and the European Union. The value of U.S. agricultural trade and cash receipts to farmers grow through the projection period. Increases in production expenses offset some of the gains in cash receipts, resulting in net farm income in the United States rising moderately from 2011 to 2019. U.S. retail food prices increase more than general inflation through 2012, but then return to a longer term relationship of rising less than the general inflation rate over the last half of the projection period.
Keywords: Projections, crops, livestock, biofuel, ethanol, trade, farm income, food prices, U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA.
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A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections 4
Long-term Projections on the Internet 5
Contacts for Long-term Projections 5
Introduction and Projections Overview 1
Key Assumptions and Implications 2
Macroeconomic Assumptions 7
Agricultural Trade 19
U.S. Crops 57
U.S. Livestock 80
U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators:
Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Expenditures 89
List of Tables 101
Features in this Report
The World Economic Crisis: Implications for the Macroeconomic Outlook and the U.S. Agricultural Sector 9
Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections 10
Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks 22
ACRE Program Enrollment 91
A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections
USDA’s long-term agricultural projections presented in this report are a Departmental consensus on a longrun scenario for the agricultural sector. These projections provide a starting point for discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector.
The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a conditional, longrun scenario about what would be expected to happen under a continuation of current farm legislation and specific assumptions about external conditions. Critical long term assumptions are made for U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions, U.S. and foreign agricultural and trade policies, and growth rates of agricultural productivity in the United States and abroad. The report assumes that there are no domestic or external shocks that would affect global agricultural supply and demand. Normal weather is assumed. Changes in any of these assumptions can significantly affect the projections, and actual conditions that emerge will alter the outcomes.
The report uses as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 2009 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2009.
The projections analysis was conducted by interagency committees in USDA and reflects a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The Economic Research Service had the lead role in preparing the departmental report. The projections and the report were reviewed and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA participants in the projections analysis and review include the World Agricultural Outlook Board; the Economic Research Service; the Farm Service Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Agricultural Marketing Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; the Risk Management Agency; the Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
Long-term Projections on the Internet
The Economic Research Service of USDA has a briefing room for long-term projections at:
Also, data from the new USDA long-term projections are available electronically at:
Contacts for Long-term Projections
Questions regarding these projections may be directed to:
Paul Westcott, Economic Research Service, Room 5188, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5335, e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Ronald Trostle, Economic Research Service, Room 5190, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5280, e-mail: email@example.com
C. Edwin Young, Economic Research Service, Room 5191, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5336, e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
David Stallings, World Agricultural Outlook Board, MS 3812, 1400 Independence Ave., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-3812, phone: (202) 720-5715, e-mail: email@example.com