GtDep/ItHadToHappen2 jw May 2009 the great deflation of 1929-33 (almost) had to happen 1




Yüklə 190.65 Kb.
səhifə3/3
tarix17.04.2016
ölçüsü190.65 Kb.
1   2   3

Edie, L.D. 1928. Gold, Production and Prices before and after the World War. Indiana Univ. Studies, No. 78, March.

_____. 1929. Capital, the Money Market, and Gold. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.

Eichengreen, B. 1985. “Introduction,” Eichengreen, ed. The Gold Standard in Theory and History. New York: Methuen.

_____. 1992. Golden Fetters. The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-39. New York: Oxford Univ. Press.

_____ and J. Sachs. 1985. “Exchange rates and economic recovery in the 1930s,” JEconHist, Dec. 925-46.

Einzig, P. 1935. World Finance, 1914-35. New York: Macmillan.

Federal Reserve Board. 1943. Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914-41. Washington, DC.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2008. www.org/Fred economic data.

Fisher, I. 1933. “The debt deflation theory of great depressions,” Econometrica, Oct. 337-57.

Friedman, M. and A.J. Schwartz. 1963. A Monetary History of the U.S., 1867-1960. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.

Gold Price. 2008. www.org.

Gordon, R.A. 1952. Business Fluctuations. New York: Harper.

Gregory, T.E. 1929. Select Statutes, Documents and Reports Relating to British Banking, 1832-1928. London: Cass.

Hamilton, J.D. 1987. “Monetary factors in the Great Depression,” J.MonetaryEcon., March 145-69.

Hansen, A.H. 1939. “Economic progress and declining population growth,” AmerEconRev, March 1-15.

Hardy, C.O. 1936. Is There Enough Gold? Washington, DC: Brookings

Hawtrey, R.G. 1922. “The Genoa Resolutions on currency,” EconomicJ, Sept. 1922, 290-304.

Hayek, F.A. 1935. Prices and Production, 2d ed. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.

Hirsch, F. 1968. "Influences on gold production," IMF Staff Papers, Nov. 405-89.

Hsieh, C. and C.D. Romer. 2006. “Was the Federal Reserve Constrained by the Gold Standard during the Great Depression?” J.EconHist, March, 140-76.

Janssen, M.A., R. Mant, and H. Strakosch. 1932. League of Nations (1932b, pp.61-73).

Jastram, R.W. 1977. The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience, 1560-1976. New York: Wiley.

Johnson, H.C. 1995. The Coming of the International Depression, ms. submitted to Yale Univ. Press.

_____. 1997. Gold, France, and the Great Depression. New Haven: Yale Univ. Press.

Kehoe, T.J. and E.C. Prescott 2002. “Great depressions of the twentieth century,” RevEconDynamics, 1-18.

Keynes, J.M. 1971-89. Collected Writings, D.E. Moggridge, ed. London: Macmillan.

_____. 1923. A Tract on Monetary Reform. London: Macmillan.

_____. 1925. “The economic consequences of Mr. Churchill,” Evening Standard, 22, 23, and 24 July (CollWritings ix).

_____. 1929. “Is there enough gold? The League of Nations enquiry,” The Nation and Athenaeum, 19 Jan. (Coll Writings xix)

_____. 1930a. “The Great Slump of 1930,” The Nation and Athenaeum, 20 and 27 Dec. (CollWritings ix).

_____. 1930b. A Treatise on Money. London: Macmillan.

Kindleberger, C.P. 1973. The World in Depression, 1929-39. London: Allen Lane the Penguin Press.

Kitchen, J. 1929. “Gold production: A survey and forecast,” Rev.Econ.&Stat., May 64-67.

_____. 1932. “Gold production and consumption,” Rev.Econ.&Stat., Aug. 126-31.

League of Nations. 1920. Currencies after the War. A Survey of Conditions in Various Countries. London: Harrison and Sons.

_____. 1931. Memorandum on Commercial Banks, 1913-29. Geneva.

_____. 1932a. Statistical Yearbook, 1931/32. Geneva.

_____. 1932b. Report of the Gold Delegation of the Financial Committee. Geneva.

_____. 1946. The Course and Control of Inflation. A Review of Monetary Experience in Europe after World War I. Princeton.

Mill, J.S. 1909. Principles of Political Economy with Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy, ed. W.J. Ashley. London: Longmans, Green & Co.

Mitchell, B.R. 1998. International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1750-1993. New York: Stockton Press.

_____. 2007a. International Historical Statistics: Africa, Asia & Oceania, 1750-2005. New York: Basingstoke.

_____. 2007b. International Historical Statistics: Americas, 1750-2005. New York: Basingstoke.

Mlynarski, F. 1929. Gold and Central Banks. London: Macmillan.

Moggridge, D.E. 1969. The Return to Gold, 1925. The Formulation of Economic Policy and its Critics. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.

Mundell, R.A. 1993. “Debt and deficits in alternative macroeconomic models,” in M. Baldassarri, Mundell, and J. McCallum, eds. Debt, Deficit and Economic Performance. New York: St. Martin’s Press.

Niesser, H.P. 1941. “The price level and the gold problem,” AmerEconRev., Feb. 1-17.

Nurkse, R. 1944. International Currency Experience. League of Nations.

Palyi, M. 1972. The Twilight of Gold, 1914-36. Chicago: Henry Regnery.

Phinney, J.T. 1933. “Gold production and the price level: The Cassel three per cent estimate,” QuarJEcon, May 647-79.

Rist, C. 1931. “The international consequences of the present distribution of gold holdings,” in The International Gold Problem. Collected Papers, Royal Institute of International Affairs. London: Oxford Univ. Press.

Robbins, L. 1934. The Great Depression. London: London: Macmillan.

Rockoff, H. 1984. “Some evidence on the real price of gold, its costs of production, and commodity prices,” in M. Bordo and A. Schwartz, A Retrospective on the Gold Standard. 1821-1931. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Sayers, R.S. 1951. “The development of central banking after Bagehot,” EconHistRev., no. 2, 109-116.

Schumpeter, J.A. 1939. Business Cycles. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Senior, Nassau. 1829. "On the quantity and value of money," in Senior, Three Lectures on the Value of Money, Oxford University.

Svennilson, I. 1954. Growth and Stagnation in the European Economy. Geneva: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.

Temin, P. 1976. Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? New York: Norton.

_____. 1989. Lessons from the Great Depression. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

U.S. Mint. 1940. Annual Report. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Wood, J.H. 2000. Monetary Policy in Democracies: Four Resumptions and the Great Depression. Great Barrington, MA: American Institute for Economic Research.

_____. 2005. A History of Central Banking in Great Britain and the United States. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press.


1 This paper was stimulated by Johnson (1995, 1997), who was stimulated by Mundell (1993), both of whom called attention to the inflation of paper currencies in the 1920s relative to their prewar gold parities. I am grateful for helpful comments by Dan Hammond, Gerry O’Driscoll, and the participants of a seminar at the American Institute for Economic Research.

2 These episodes are compared in Wood (2000; 2005 ch. 2, 3, 6, 8, 10 ). The wholesale prices in Figure 1 are similar to other price series. For example the historical CPI of the BLS reported in Carter (2006) was 13 in 1812, 18 in 1814, and 13 in 1819; 9 in 1861, 16 in 1865, and 10 in 1879; 10 in 1913, 20 in 1920, and 13 in 1933.

3

 Real effects of sticky wages and prices, market wedges, productivity shocks, and credit interruptions are considered by Cole and Ohanian 1999; Kehoe and Prescott 2002; Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno 2003; Bernanke and Carey 1986; Bordo, Erceg, and Evans 2000; Chari, Kehoe, and McGratton 2002; and Bernanke 1983. Keynes (1930a, p. 128) attributed the great falls in output to the unwillingness of business to invest in a deflationary environment, an argument developed in 1936 (p. 143). Fisher (1933) focusd on the increased burden of debt due to deflation.

4 Chaired by Lord Cunliffe, governor of the Bank of England (Gregory, 1929 ii, 361).

5 Exceptions included Rist (1931) and Edie (1929).

6 v did not rise during the Civil War as much as the other occasions because the suspension was limited to the U.S. and a free market in gold allowed Pg to rise.

7 Keynes may have overlooked the reserve role of coin discussed above.

8 The exchange rate ratios are Switzerland (0.774), Netherlands (0.776), Canada (1.09), U.K. (1.149), S. Africa (1.176), Sweden (1.177), Norway (1.206), Denmark (1.403), N. Zealand (1.431), Australia (1.444), Spain (1.776), Japan (1.98), Italy (2.836), France (4.949), Belgium (5.361). Omissions are due to the lack of data or substantial currency reforms (such as in Germany) making data incomparable.

9 “The increase in the world’s monetary stock of gold after 1914 did not keep pace with the increase in the total volume of fictitious capital” (Einzig 1935, p. 142).

…………………..





1   2   3


Verilənlər bazası müəlliflik hüququ ilə müdafiə olunur ©azrefs.org 2016
rəhbərliyinə müraciət

    Ana səhifə