Economics 827 Economic Forecasting




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Economics 827

Economic Forecasting

Summer 1999

Exercise I


Data Retrieval and Basic Analysis of Economic Time Series

July 8th, 1999

Due: July 15, 1999
Retrieve the indicated data series from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) and enter all the series into an Excel workbook. Graph each of the data series on separate worksheets. Write a brief description of the observed characteristics of each series, including your observations about time trends and the cyclical behavior of the series, if any, between the peaks of various business cycles in the U.S. economy.
Team I. (quarterly data)

1.Real Personal Consumption expenditures - chained 1992 dollars

2. Real Disposable Personal Income - chained 1992 dollars

3. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - chained 1992 dollars

4. Real Fixed Private Investment - chained 1992 dollars

5. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)


Team II. (monthly data, all SA)

1. Consumer Price Index - all urban consumers

2. Producer Price Index - all commodities

3. PPI for Finished Goods

4. PPI for Crude Materials for further Processing

5. Total Industrial Production Index

6. National Association of Purchasing Manufacturers Composite Index
Team III. (monthly data, SA except as indicate)

1. Civilian Employment - 16 years and older

2. Civilian Labor Force

3. Civilian Noninstitutional Population - 16 years and older (not seasonally adjusted)



4. Unemployment Rate

5. U.S. Manufacturing Employment


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