Don’t write off U.S. Democrats will win & their views are closer to ours.
Suppose Six became 3rd Force, neutral – U.S. wd. quickly turn to us.
We are a world power. We can’t turn to Europe. It must mean loss of C. for they can’t be brought in. Memo. proves that.
Hail. Share D.E.’s views.
(i) is impossible because wd. undermine all confidence in our past policies on agric., E.F.T.A. under-developed and C.
This being so, fear (ii) is wishful thinking. Shan’t get special terms wh. are tolerable & m’while shall have destroyed confidence of our friends in E.F.T.A. and in C. Damage to new members eg. Ghana – who are our entry to uncommitted in E/W. struggle.
Will (ii) really avoid the obvious objns. to (i).
Getting committed to (vi) may destroy Tory Party.
M. Favour (ii). But concerned about C. – and tactics of handling them. Shd. consult them before we make up our minds.
J.H. Full membership is out because of C. It wd. not be so bad for farmers.
Wd. suit us to join : but we shall be asked price we can’t afford.
Damage to C., farmer, consumer, tax-payer.
Food prices 7½% doesn’t sound bad : but bread, butter etc. wd. double. Effect on wages and thro’ them on our competitive power.
On (ii) I have considered eg. wheat. We shd. have to accept target and we shd. have to repay levies to C. : re-negotiate agreement with U.S.
cereals marketing board to allocate acreage to farms etc.,
Pledges under 1947 Act cdn’t be kept. What new policy cd. be devised which wd. be fair to C.
J.M. Pol. unity of Six. Do we want it? - for stability in Europe.
If so, & if it’s likely to succeed, our posn. in long-term might be seriously reduced. Influence with U.S. & with C. might decline.
This means some accommn. like (ii).
R.A.B. Wd. mean abandonment of agric policy. This wd. undermine our pol. position. Avoid misunderstanding on that.
In future, there may be changes – agric. and C. Position may be easier.
Opinion w’in Six countries – don’t expect us to join.
Endorse line suggested by R.M. No fwd. move at present.
We shd. have done more to explain problem to our farmers and to C. We shd. begin to make them think.
J.H. Wd. like authority now to begin to warn N.F.U.’s. Treat them as partners.
H.B. Problem insoluble in present context. Much educational work to be done. Situation will change : interests must be made to realise that.
Don’t see what cards we have. Cd. that also be studied.
Educatl. discussion, esp. with C. Their problem as well as ours.
Hope Can. may continue to discuss from time to time.
H.W. If Six, supported by U.S. pursue minimal econ. policies can we continue to pay so much for their defence. That is a card.
Ch.H. Dangers of standing out can be over-stated,.
86% of our trade is outside Six.
Our wisdom & experience is still valued abroad.
Thus, even tho’ we cd. influence them from w’in, crucial point remains tht. we cdn’t discriminate v. C. We shd. bring out what our diffies. are.
C. shd. examine this in their separate Cabinets & we shd. know their views.
Is there any real prospect of a deal on ii) or iii)?
We can do no more than indicate readiness to discuss, if will on the other side to negotiate.
E.H. i) is out. Chances of ii) or iii) are smaller than in early negotiations.
We must try to put ourselves in stronger posn.
S.Ll. Federation – don’t think that will be obstacle. Govts. will bear Hallstein on this.
France at present has no intention to let us in. If we offered, France wd. have us at their mercy for long period of negotiation.
For the moment – work thro’ E.F.T.A. : use G.A.T.T. to lower tariffs : consult with C. : build up view in Europe thr. fusion of 6 & 7 is inevitable.
What do we say? Can’t say our purpose is (ii). We shdn’t gain in negotiatns. and shd. undermine confidence of others. Say rather we believe in union of 6 & 7.
E.M. If we don’t move quickly, our posn. will be weaker.
Six will succeed. Eg. M/Transport will build single vehicle & defeat our exports. Ditto on ship. bldg. We must join this or some larger group. We shall be beaten on research, too.
R.W. Asked – nothing to say.
P.M. Variety of emphasis, but a good deal of agreement.
What do we say in debate? To hold E.F.T.A. – indicate how Europe must be held together. R.M. or H.A. and a junior F.O. Minister & rest of main speech.
R.M. & H.A. to draft a main statement and circulate it next week to Cabinet.
After that, reflect during Recess.
C.C.42(60) 14th July1960
1. Parliament. [Enter M.R.
R.A.B. Business for next week.
2. Foreign Affairs.
S.Ll. Soviet protest – breach of international law. Complaint v. us was mainly concerned with Fedn. troops.
Local sitn. : B. control Eur. quarter and airfield at Leopoldville. B. subjects are w’in Embassy Zone. Katanga quiet. Stanleyville : 12 B. families and no Belgian troops. Govr. Kenya, authorised last night to take emergency action to evacuate them – incldg. use of mil. aircraft if necessary, with small no. of troops to safeguard the aircraft. (Authority given by P.M., with S.Ll. and I.M. Cabinet * endorsed decision.)
Katanga has declared independence. Belgians are equivocal on ques. wthr. they will recognise this. Belgian troops in whole territory are being increased from 4.000 to 8.000.
U.N. Security Council have passed resoln. calling on Belgium to w’draw troops and ordering Sec. Genl. to organise mil. assistance temporarily (3 abstentions : U.K., France, China) until l. authorities are in control.
Ghana. Troops ready to go. U.K. aircraft required. Congolese Govt. have bn. asking them direct. Nkrumah hopes to be able to act under U.N. auspices.
Fund for relief of distress in Congo is being raised. Shd. we contribute?
H. Can Belgians put their troops under U.N. Command?
S.Ll. Unlikely that U.N. would accept them.
P.M. V. diff. situation. Rhodesia alarmed : Ghana seeking to intervene : a conflict between the 2 is possible. N. asking for loan of our
i) aircraft for his troops. Bad for them to intervene as Ghanaian.
But ok if done under U.N. auspices. Can we arrange that?
ii) Is it our duty and interest to accept seccession of Katanga? Might be in our interest. But a U.N. Force will progressively re-establish authy. of central Govt. – which is likely to be more extreme, and even Communist controlled.
On (i) general agreement we shd. act under U.N. auspices.
S.Ll. U.N. is better, in our interest, than B. attempt to re-conquer or chaos which R. and China would exploit.
Further discussion – not noted.
[Exit S.Ll. and H.
I.M. Lancaster Ho. agreement now has almost universal support in K.
But anxiety remains about land tenure. I suggest – i) re-affirmn. of non racial policy in respect of land. ii) we shd. deal with this in U.K. not by local legn. (iii) Cab. Cttee. to evolve solution on security of tenure, under K’s chairmanship. (iv) Possibly a conference here on land titles.
R.A.B. Date of announcement in Annex B?
I.M. 20-23 July – here and in Kenya.
H.A. No objn. of substance. Alarmed by para.2 of draft statement – wd. raise false hopes. The possible schemes wd. be v. costly to Exchequer - £100 m. or over – which wd. be beyond our means.
I.M. I have said, in H/C. Kenya, that compensation is out of question.
Some other solution – tho’ it may cost something to Ty.
4. Non-Industrial Employment : Shops. Offices etc.
R.A.B. No legn. in coming session. Propose comprehensive legn. in session after next so that we can initiate comprehensive consultations.
This will leave private Bill inoperative – no regulations wd. be made under it.
T.U.C. wd. prefer this method.
H.A. Administrative cost of enforcement – prob. £¼ m.
Tory Party wdn’t accept l.a. enforcement because of excessive zeal of Socialist l.a.’s.
H.B. This is an open ques. still : don’t agree with R.A.B.
E.M. Crippling burden on rlways.
M. Also on industry. What is contemplated?
H.A. Total cost might be £130 m.
D.E. At a time when we shd. be concentrated on productive investment.
E.H. As under Factories Act we shd. have ample discretion to delay compliance.
D.E. My minor works p’mme is subject to Ty. control.
R.A.B. Ready to submit this equally to Investment P’mme Control.
H.A. Cd. only control it by mitigating enforcement.
P.M. We can’t escape fact that Marsh Bill will come into law. Can we ease posn. by making our own Bill, more comprehensive, but less onerous and more flexible.
H.A. Still feel that this is not an urgent priority.
5. Artificial Insemination.
6. Supersonic Airliner.
H.A. Doubts about any project of this kind. Particular doubt about this slower alternative.
D.S. Shd. we not at least find out wthr. U.S. are interested.
H.W. U.S. are building 2 steel aircraft around Mach 3 out of defence votes.
May be for an airliner.
H.A. I wd. sooner keep r. and d. going on 2.7 as well as 2.2.
P.M. Dpts. must consider wthr. we wd. be more likely to get assocn. with other countries if we continued studies up to Mach 3.
H.A. to consult on this with interested Ministers.
D.S. I want to choose betwn. 2 aircraft co. groups : & get chosen one to talk to U.S. To save money and secure negotns.
Cabinet to resume discussion later.
C.C.45(60) 25th July 1960
1. Foreign Affairs. [Enter M.R.
S.Ll. Shall take line in H/C. that first need is to restore law & order.
H. Genl. Akyanan went to N.York & has submitted his resignation to NK.
H.W. Commando was to have gone from Aden to Kenya : can’t go because of potential troubles in Aden : propose therefore to send a battn. from here, in aircraft which are going out in any event.
2. European Economic Co-operation.
H.A. Talks went well. Fr. & U.S. more helpful than we feared. Sufficient favourable progress to justify communiqué. Sec. Genl. appointed – who will become S. Genl. of O.E.E.C. – a Danish ex Minister of Finance, Christiansen.
Better spirit than we had expected.
M.R. Return 25/10. Prorogue 27/10. New Session 1/11. To be announced today.
4. Agriculture : Farm Improvement Scheme. [Enter D. Vosper.
P.M. As in brief.
H.A. In my public statements in Parlt. as M/Ag., I did reserve right to slow it down if it went too far.
Effects i) increasing quantum of production because of increased efficiency. Symbolic of effects of policy – cost exceeding estimates. If that continues, it must mean taxation higher in propn. to g.n.p. I therefore feel it necessary to bring all such cases to notice of Cabinet.
In cases where we can revise our policies, we shd. do so : and on this our hands are free, if we wish to face pol. difficulties involved.
S.Ll. Cd. we not control it administratively – not more than £5 m. a year for next 2 or 3 years.
J.H. i) This enables us to be tougher in annual reviews.
ii) Tho’ our right to reduce was reserved, farmers assume it will run for 10 years at annual rate required – not at maximum of £50 m.
iii) Adminn. cd. delay the grants, but not the applns. We shall have a backlog.
D.E. Wd. import discrimination between one claim or another – unless you merely had a waiting list & that wd. cause gt. resentment.
Increased food prodn. = a healthy form of export subsidy.
H.A. Cd. you find a compensating cut in the production grants. They have risen by £30 m. or more over past 4 years or so.
J.H. Para.8. During that period we have required farmers to abort £90 m. of increased costs.
H. Better to reduce ploughing grants?
Hail. £3 m. p.a. is surely a sum wh. cd. save on a Price Review.
D.V. In N.I. applns. are being delayed in expectn. that grant will continue for 10 years. They wd. be penalised if %age were now reduced.
P.M. Better, surely, to avoid reducing %age. Reserve final decision until Price Review, & see what we can do in the way of compensating savings.
H.A. We shall need to know what figure to put in Estimates.
P.M. Dangerous to alter percentage.
M/Ag. to consider i) possibility of slowing expendre.
by adminve. means ii) compensating economies on production grants etc., or otherwise in Price Review.
5. Information Services : S. America.
Ch.H. Two parts. Second part I will take up with Ministers concerned and Ch/Exch.
P.M. V. interesting.
Fear tht. after Africa, Communist pressure will turn to S. America.
S.Ll. Value of Ch. H.’s visit.
Ch. H. Serious loss – disappearance of Reuters. Fear they have no chance of getting back.
General warmth to U.K. – readiness to welcome us.
D.S. Confirm that from recent personal experience.
6. Economic Situation. B/Payments.
H.A. E.P.C. will be holding a 2nd discussion. Have asked Ty. for memo. on capital exports.
Para.13 of covering memo. Shd. be : “or an attempt in present circs. to restrict private investment & lending in the sterling area”.
Shd. not exclude resln. of Govt. lending overseas – that may well need action.
K. Para.25 of report. Seek elucidation.
H.A. Kuwait gap stopped. But a new one thro’ H. Kong : may be only a temporary development. Accounts for larger part of the £45 m. mentioned in report. Shall submit memo. to E.P.C. on this.
Increased demand for Commonwealth assistance loans.
P.M. Alarmed by signs of recession in U.S. eg. steel.
R.M. Not typical of U.S. production as a whole.
H.A. U.S. steel v. mercurial.
I.M. Main oversea investment is private – wh. we can’t control.
Example of cutting back on public investment. Singapore wants £20 m. and is offered £4 m. : they will turn to R.
Lesson : we ought to get more resources for oversea development. Obvious source is Germany : & our mil. expenditure is surely a card we can play.
H.A. This was object of the internatl. assistance group. So far, it has produced little result. G. has done nil. save loan to Dev. Bank. Whether we shd. threaten on basis of our £60 m. mil. expenditure in G. must be considered in N.A.T.O. context.
H.W. Am preparing memo. on where our oversea mil. expenditure falls.
E.H. Serious long-term trend. Assumptn. of £300-400 m. surplus.
Average of 10 years shows £130 m. short-fall on average. We have never come near our target. Reserves are never strong enough for stability & we are forced to use interest rate, with its serious internal consequences. Re-assessment of whole situation is needed.
D.E. Increased rate of private investment overseas. Rests on a judgement. We shd. see tht. attractions of investment in U.K. are increased.
Para.13 suggests remedy of restraint at home. But that will make it even more attractive to invest abroad. Here is our dilemma. How keep dynamism of own market & at same time preserve our posn. abroad? i) Less imports : agric. cd. help. ii) more exports. iii) discriminatory measures to increase attractions of investment overseas.
M. ) Increased pressure of our exports brings risk tht. some countries will
H.W. ) force you to manufacture there instead of exporting from here.
D.E. Accept that. Need for a new look. May be we cd. get a better credit balance by balancing trade at a lower level : balancing trade at highest possible level may be out-moded.
H.A. You may be right : but v. hard to determine at what level : how to do it.
Corollary of our present premise : we must be competitive.
P.M. Can we improve presentation? Periodical statements include nothing on invisibles – or oversea investments & assets.
H.A. Better than it was. Will consider what more we cd. do.
7. North British Locomotive Company.
R.M. The industry is too large : in long run, when it contracts, this is the firm which will go. No economic case.
J.M. Means tht. another industry making for natd. industry will be concentrated in the south. Admit firm has bad history : but new Chairman is efficient & believes tht. with time, he can get it round & diversified. New factor : assurance of share in 62/63 p’mme wd. enable him to hang on.
E.M. B.T.C. don’t want these (obsolete) diesels. The new model is 10% cheaper to buy and to run. They will order only if Govt. pay.
P.M. Unemplt. rate in Glasgow is 3.2%.
Will rlways manufacture for themselves? Wdn’t matter to local emplt. in Swindon or Rugby – it cd. switch.
M. Perhaps rlways shd. make less of their requirements – but will take time to decide that. Wrong to keep this firm artificially alive m’while.
H.A. Disastrous effect on morale of rlways if we required them to buy less economic locos. No assurance they will get new orders, on competitive tenders.
J.H. Plain that the industry is too big.
J.M. This is not a place to cut. South & rlway workshops shd. take the knock.
P.M. Real trouble is : how can we force B.T.C. to do uneconomic thing when S.A.G. is at work & we’ve said what we have about the efficiency of rlway planning.
E.H. Hope Dpts. concerned with natd. industries will review location of their suppliers.
J.M. May I discuss with E.M. i) wthr. existing types are as bad as claimed and ii) what prospects of the new order.
E.M. On ii) best course is to have M/T. offl. present at mtgs. between B.T.C. and Co.
P.M. Any support to keep Co. going shd. be based on prospect of their putting in competitive tender for new types.
C.C.46(60) 26th July 1960
1. Oversea Civil Service. [Enter M.R.
P.M. Mtg. at which H.A. was represented (in his absence in Paris) by E. Boyle with object of meeting main objective at lower cost. New proposal – cost at £14 m. vice £24.28 – tho’ only real change is continued payment of half passages by Col. Govts. at saving of only £3.5! This is supported by H. and I.M.
H.A. Challenge figures. Gross total of £24.28 was offset by £3¼ m. saving – giving £21 m. Saving on new passage proposal brings it to £18.5.
The balance of £4 m. represents dedn. of pensions etc., (which will come in later). And oversea expenditure wd. be £13.5 m. of the net £21 m.
P.M. Inducement pay £9 m. – some wd. be spent here. Education allowances almost all in U.K. Pensions & passages almost all at home.
H.A. Don’t argue that this will affect f. exchange i.e. reserves – but it will effect U.K. b/payments.
I.M. Savings as cpd. with earlier scheme : giving total cost of £14 m. or a little under. Strain on overseas expenditure must be v. small.
H.A. Agree figure is £14 m. at once, rising to £16 m. – and then dropping.
B/p. figure is £13.5., however.
My 2 objns. i) we can’t allow any increase in Estimates w’out off-setting economies. ii) effect on b/payments.
I cd. not therefore recommend it.
R.A.B. This is basic to our oversea administration. If economies must be sought, we must find them elsewhere.
H.A. Why do we have to relieve Col. Govts. – enough to carry extra costs?
P.M. This is a v. high priority. But I accept oblign. to look for savings elsewhere.
H.A. Cost of troops in G. plus defence cost in F/E are together insupportable. One or other must be cut.
K. This plan is necessary, inter alia, to retain confidence of Europeans in E. Africa.
P.M. Approve this plan. Resolve to look for economies elsewhere.
H.A. No quarrel with priorities – warning only of total position.
2. Commonwealth Immigrants.
R.A.B. Propose a) re-constitution of Cab. Cttee. in autumn.
b) further pressure on W. Indies. esp. Jamaica.
I.M. Support this approach.
W.I. Ministers are doing their best.
H.B. Housing diffies. here are the most you spot.
3. Industrial Relations.
E.H. After Cab. discussion I spoke to P.M. and consulted employers and workers.
Former are more f’coming than before. T.U. leaders can’t get agreed body of support among Unions.
But 2 sides have now suggested joint mtg. – 7 aside, in a regular forum – on 8 subjects. They meet on Wed. & I hope we may get some proposals.
4. Housing & Rating Policy.
R.A.B. Summarised recommns.
Politically tempting to have it alone, but credit to be gained by increasing low council rents.
Timing is important. But many points of un-popularity.
H.B. Must tackle this boldly Diff. time this winter when 3-year moratorium on rent increases will expire.
On balance, more support from those who disapprove low council rents than from those who enjoy them. cf. attitude of Tories on L.C.C.
J.M. Sorn’s shade remains! He comes to fruition in ’61, and I am out of time all round. Am considering with English Dpt. & Ty. wthr. we can move before 1966 on industrial re-rating.
Nor can I move on house rating.
On subsidies, I agree : but equally can’t move so soon.
Must also avoid appearing to damp down essential bldg.
H.A. Industrial re-rating. Scotland shd. move as quickly as poss.
On housing subsidies – agree in principle with this plan but Ty. posn. must be reserved until figures are available. Hope we can avoid any net increase in Exchequer cost.
Must advice v. subsidising assocns. bldg. houses to let. A new commitment at a time when we shd. be undertaking none.
x/ A small start only is proposed, but if it succeeded it mght run us into a lot of money. Avoid any public commitment at present.
H.B. No ques. of that before autumn. But hope Dpts. & Ty. can continue to look at it.
Recommendations approved. Further thought to x/.
5. Coinage Reform.
H.A. As in memo.
Possible moves i) abolish ¼d. used only in Aberdeen.
ii) sound public opinion on size of ½d. and 1d.
ii) wd. take a long time and involve much change of slot machines.
Possibly action over 5 years.
iii) a possible crown. Cupro nickel too big. Real silver under experiment. Not at present satisfied.
No action on (ii) and (iii). [Enter C., Att.G.
6. Law of the Sea.
K. As in memo.
S.lL. V. difficult. If we made this announcement – i) present Govt. of I. wd. be driven to strong counter measures : might go out of N.A.T.O. : wd. put down resoln. in Sec. Council : R. might send warships to the area : our friends wd. think we were rocking the boat. We might lose our Norwegian agreement and get into fresh trouble in Faroes.
Only safe card to play is threat of embargo on landings (by industry).
Tho’ I can’t promise that this will bring them to negotiate.
J.H. Our industry are ready to offer negotiations. I. industry won’t decline to talk.
H. In addn. to S.lL. fears, I believe Canada wd. repudiate our action.
J.H. K.’s proposal wd. be consonant with what we said at Geneva – and got wide support for it, for there was general impatience with attitude of I. Believe we cd. preserve that moral position.