|Pol. dangers. Quite a few will misunderstand “apply to join”? Have suggd. formula, makg. it plain we aren’t committed to join.
With that, we may hold them.
Hope we can indicate we shall be going out for condns. to s’guard C’wealth e.g. quota for temperate foods.
Manufactured goods fr. under-developed : better if concession on that is obtainable.
Agriculture. Sorry no more success with Woolley. Party is ahead of them - knowg. our subsidy bill is too heavy. Must show some hope for future. Promise no loss of income and we may get thro’.
But if N.F.U. intend to agitate, we shall be in jeopardy in marginal agricultural seats.
A. v. dangerous course – qua. both C’wealth and agriculture.
D.E. Must now negotiate, to find out.
C’wealth hunches on pol. aspects are interesting. Signs of it in Party here. This is nothg. to do with economics. Unless you can have assocn. based on friendship, little hope for world.
Are we going to damage that. Members of E.E.C. are not v. good at relns. with emergent countries.
Not more than 50/50 shame of holding Party on this. Must therefore try to get it across tht. by this we can open European windows – not that U.K. will disappear into Europe.
No answer to them to say it will make U.K. industry more efficient.
K. Had thght we ought to take longer to consider C’wealth re-actions.
See now we must apply in order to see what terms we caught.
Must consider too Ghana mtg. & Party conference. Cdn’t dither.
M. Chances of success now v. small. Conditions too hard. Agree we must apply : but care tht. in negotns. we don’t give C’wealth case away.
Hail. Likely to fail. Dislike going on, with risk to C’wealth etc. in somethg. so unlikely to succeed. But this (Berlin) is not a moment to divide ourselves. I wd. therefore go along.
I.M. Favour appln. But gt. doubts – esp. because de G. doesn’t want us.
But if we fail, better to do so after negotn. – showing we won’t sacrifice C’wealth for our own advantage.
H.B. Support I.M. Only fear is tht. we mayn’t carry Party because we seem only to be trying temperature in order to run away. Let it be an act of courage.
H.W. France doesn’t want us : they may play us along for too long.
If we do this, must be step twds. larger concept. Can we make this the b’ground to our approach. Unification of free world.
J.M. Scottish opinion favours this more than opinion in South.
Sc. T.U.C. have come out in support. Sc N.F.U. sounder than E. & W.
Main Sc. worry : sacrifice of sovereignty.
We shd. apply.
Ch. H. Distinguish betwn. negotn. (to find out condns.) and appln. to join.
Awkward tht. we have to “apply to accede”. Must get it across tht this isn’t decision to join.
E.H. E.F.T.A. Danes wd. wish to apply with us. Norway too – tho’ announce later (election). Portugal in some form. The neutrals would move later.
Agreed on E.F.T.A. tht. none wd. sign unless legitimate interests of others met.
French don’t expect us to apply. If we do, their attitude may change.
Certainly, other influences in Europe will be released – to our advantage.
E.M. Don’t overlook strength of competn. wh. U.K. industry will have to face – & opposn. when industry begins to realise it. Shipping alone has faced it & dislike it. Also T.U.’s.
C.C.43(61) 24th July 1961
Economic Situation. [Enter E.P., P.M.G., J.B.-C.
Remedies – long term
S.Ll. i) Remedies - long term : wages pause to await productivity increase.
[In 60/61 personal incomes rose by £1365 m. Prodn. by £500/600 m.
[This is simplest way of demonstrating situation.
Short-term investment & trading profits, incldg. speculn. : shall promise to bring fwd. proposals next year.
ii) Public expenditure (home) : short reference in statement : expand in
iii) Oversea expenditure. Aid : will avoid “ceiling” and will use
formula “not much more”.
Private investment in non. sterling area : remittances : have agreed
formula with B/E. In sterling area we must see what we can do to
control dangerous position.
iv) Gap – re industry. Can’t say more on ? practices : little on tariffs as
means of sharpening efficiency. Not v. much : but this mainly for
Remedies – short term.
a) B/E. agreed on increase (1% or 1½%) in sp. deposits.
b) B/E. Will ask investment cos. etc. to be restrictive on loans for private
c) B.r. 7% from tomorrow.
d) Regulator (first) : from midnight.
e) Substantial drawing from I.M.F.
Open ques : x 2nd Regulator C.112.
y H.Purchase. B/E. want it because of credit restrictions.
z Shd. I announce teachers’ salaries decisions?
P.M. Govr. B/E. takes dark view. Friday was a bad day.
He favoured steeper increase of Bank rate.
May be tendency to panic by holders of wealth – stimulated by what Kennedy will say tomorrow. May be movement to gold via any currency. Agreed : Br. as proposed.
Govr. also pressed for x and y. On x. he argued tht. we had secured the power : why not use it? We said money wd. not be large (£60-70 m.) and weapon so unpopular with industry tht. if we used it, we were less likely to hold wage pause.
On y. amounts lent are large : why not curb them? We said Reg. 1. wd. affect industries living on h.p. (refrigerators & t.v. & cars) & wd. be unfair to hit them twice.
In last 2 yrs. we have spent £500 m. & lent £500 m. overseas which we haven’t got. (Must stop the leak of private investment in sterling area.) Panic, if it starts will bear on weakest currency.
My belief is tht. package is enough to win 1st battle. (I.M.F.) If so, better concentrate on getting industry (both sides) to work together and with us for concerted attack on 2nd – increasing efficiency and pause.
R.M. Agree on external sitn. & remedies for it.
On internal, doubt if posn. is as bad as Ty. and B/E. think.
2nd regulator wd. alienate industry when we want its help.
Same for h.p. – which wd. hit them hard, in addn. to other measures.
Foreign confidence (qua internal policy) will turn on their judgement of our determination to hold wages.
P.T. Agree with R.M. H.p. wd. hit narrow band of industry – too hard.
2nd Regulator : sympathise with B/E. but see practical diffies.
Pity we haven’t a selective regulator – to increase taxn. on engineering industry if they conceded unjustifiable wage claim.
On balance, I wdn’t do 2nd regulator.
J.H. Agree with R.M. and P.T. If we go too far, we may go beyond point of healthy home demand wh. is necessary to expand exports.
M. 2nd regulatgor v. discriminatory – hits hardest industries in which labour costs are highest.
H.W. Strongly favour statement on teachers’ salaries – 2 above.
Against 2nd regulator. Doubtful about h.p.
D.E. Against h.p. – mainly because potent cause of wage claims.
But also because doubt if S.Ll. surplus is enough for this situation.
B. rate : only value to enable us line on hot money. Quantity of money is more important than price. V. expensive to us – in investment. Better if we cd. have more money, but selective method of using it at cheaper rate. Clue is size of surplus.
Need to support Govt.’s internal credit.
I.M. Against h.p. For 1st regulator will have effect of restrictg. h.p. contracts.
For 2nd regulator. It wd. help – esp. on wages pause : for wage restraint can’t be secured by exhortnn. : only by facts. This wd. be a fact – like decn. on teachers (cf. N.H.S. clerks some years ago).
J.M. Spoke v. 2nd regulator : qua discriminatg. in effect.
H.B. Ditto. Support 2. as a fact.
E.M. i) Short term : what is total saved. We shd. reach the £500 m.
ii) Wages will be crux. Not only basic rates; but local, too.
It is largely a regional problem because push of over full employmt.
causes employers to pay excessive rates (overtime etc.)
P.M. Then M/T. shd. reduce demand of their roads p’mmes.
S.Ll. On E.M.’S (i). Assured increased in 1 yr.’s time : £1150 m. Measures wd. cut £700 m. off (assuming £100 m. redn. in private sector).
But this assumes 5% wage increase & if we get the pause there will be a bonus. But also assumes £350 m. improvemt. in b/p. & that is v. doubtful indeed.
2nd Regulator : only £60 m. and 50% of that is found by Exchequer.
Wd. have preferred to be able to increase rates of p.tax : but no powers.
E.P. * We shd. pull in more cash over next few months.
S.Ll. Origin of £500 m. figure - Jacobson & O.E.E.C. (get that off domestic consumption but not in current year).
Hail. Danger of panic after H/C. rises. Powers for that?
D.S Wages pause is surely crux. Have we examined bldg. control?
S.Ll. Operating on this by restricting credit – thro B/E. appeal to lenders of all types to restrict lending for private house bldg, with threat of compulsion if they don’t respond.
Answer to Hail. If crisis, recall Parlt. for emergency legn.
S.Ll. * Agree with that, but easier to say than to do.
H. i) Is S.Ll. going to refer to O.E.E.C. suggn. – & say we will meet it?
S.Ll. Phasing back £90 m. of investment : £120 m. saved below line : current expre. next year 2½% increase - £100 m. less than bids. But there are not cuts on existg. spending.
P.M. Summing up.
(1) Teachers’ salaries : shd. be mentioned.
J.H. Shd. certainly be said. But better for M/E. to say it on Wedy.;
D.E. Take opposite view. Let S.Ll. do it.
P.M. Favour incldg. it under heading of Govt. expre.
D.E. Then I must see Barnham people Tues. p.m. Can I invite them today?
P.M. No. See them Wedy. a.m. (inviting Tues. a.m.)
D.E. Must it be £42 m.? I want freedom to give somethg. to head teachers. Will discuss with S.Ll.
C.S. Better for D.E. to announce on Wedy.
Agreed : S.Ll. to include, in terms to be settled with
J.H., D.E. and J.M.
(2) Hire Purchase.
S.Ll. Think of saying we will watch this & act if necessary.
R.M. Wd. create uncertainty & possibly lead to forestalling.
P.M. Useful, however, to B/E. in spkg. on credit restrictions.
Agreed : Don’t do it : don’t threaten.
(3) Second Regulator.
Agreed : Not to be applied. Mainly because of argument v increasing costs.
H.B. Against announcing tht. level of next year’s estimates will exceed this years by not more than 2½%. Wd. tie our hands.
P.M. Put it other way round : save £100 m. : this means increase won’t exceed 2½%.
It’s a total – 2% ceiling for each Estimate.
P.M. Standards have become too high – incldg. entertainment, as well as salaries etc. Industry too.
C.C.44(61) 27th July 1961
1. European Economic Community. [Enter M.R.
R.A.B. Draft of P.M.’s statement tabled.
S.Ll. Formula “apply to join” – will alarm opinion here.
R.A.B. Have suggd. words already to meet that.
E.H. Remember opposite effect on Six.
P.T. R.A.B.’s phrase doesn’t harm that.
D.S. Add also : reference to Art.237 of Treaty which envisages agreement on condn. of entry. As an elaboration of R.A.B.’s formula. Agreed.
Ch.H. “Only negotiations can reveal this clearer picture” cd. also be added after R.A.B.’s formula.
D.S. Para.2. 3rd sentence may alienate Afro.Asian Doms.
K. But this is our main reason for going in.
P.T. Put it on positive basis not negative anti. Communist basis.
H. Use the argument – but avoid reference to Communism – Agreed.
Amendments suggested for P.M.’s consideration.
M.R. Motion by Tory supporters. Pretty mild. Cd. we take any words and include them in P.M.’s statement & Govt. motion? To avoid abstentions. Esp. on sovereignty.
P.T. Better reply to motion on basis that it is premature : can’t say what encroachment on sovereignty until we know what is involved.
M.R. Then, to avoid more names being added, can we bring statement forward to Friday? I know this can’t be done.
Form of Govt. motion approved, after amendment.
Business for next week.
Resumption : 23 or 24/10. Prorogue 26/7 Oct. New Session 31/10 : at 11.30 a.m.
Stansgate. Judgement Friday 10.30 a.m.
May be claim for debate next week.
No time to propose Joint Select Cttee.
3. Teachers’ Salaries.
D.E. Reaction as expected. Diffy. to persuade them they haven’t been singled out. i) Hope Ministers will get it across tht. £42 m. is a generous offer : corresponds with rise in public salaries generally.
ii) More important : both sides represented as departure my suggn. tht. Govt. shd. indicate in future size and distn. of total : this is start of a wages policy : not done for other parts of public service. I said we shd. be doing this in public sector. New Ty. memo. satisfies me. Can I be assured tht. it will be basis for Govt. action ? Can more be said about other parts of public service?
Can Ty. Ministers say more in debate?
S.Ll. Can repeat : no ques. of special discriminn. v. teachers.
D.E. Can I be assured tht. I shan’t be alone in trying to keep teachers’ salaries in line with increases in productivity etc.
L.a. expectn. tht. there wd. be more on this in S.Ll.’s speech.
4. Civil Aviation : Airports.
Presentation of White Paper approved.
5. Kenya : Jomo Kenyatta.
Doubts expressed. After discussion substance approved.
I.M. On timing – don’t announce when H/L. is not sitting. I wd. prefer
to make it on Tuesday, and face it.
H. Someone shd. spk. to Swinton in advance.
C.C.45(61) 28th July 1961
1. Tunisia. [Enter J.P., J.A.
H. French digging in : declining to w’draw to earlier posns. w’out assurances : no readiness to negotiate unless evacuation is explicitly excluded.
Violent Afro. Asian resoln. in U.N. – on which we must abstain.
P.M. Beginning to favour Troika principle for U.N. because, as it can’t do anything useful, it’s better tht. it shd. do nothing at all.
Alarming tht. de G. gets increasingly autocratic – unwilling to listen to advice.
H. We might offer Br. Embassy as mtg. place for negotiation.
H. One certainty. K. will make his Treaty, to enhance status states of D.D.R.
Another : world opinion won’t allow war w’out prior negotiations.
When? Nil before G. election : for e.g. Oder Neissi line wd. have to be included in any deal. Start therefore between 17/9 and 17/10.
What sort? Direct with R. on presence & access in return for de factor negotiation of D.D.R. If that failed, we wd. go to U.N. with 2 proposals – that and, alternatively, free City plan.
Don’t go to U.N. first – that wd. erode W. position.
U.S. are disposed to prefer to let K. move, then take him to U.N. & negotiate there. Too risky. Doubtful if we wd. get sufft. Majority v R. & DDR. latter might behave reasonably for a time, & give U.N. no cause for complaint.
Believe K. mght prefer my timing. He wd. be in clearer control at time of negotn.
Military. Acheson plans rejected or diluted. Prob. of 2 divns. abandoned in favour of i) economic pressure ii) garrison airlift iii) only then a land operation. General strengthening of N.A.T.O. is now preferred.
Hail. Berlin is outpost : must avoid major battle for an outpost. Failure of mil. strategy. It is militarily indefensible.
Balance of advantage in West is now to leave maximum contact with D.D.R. because least satisfactory of all R.’s satellites. We can erode it.
Flow of refugees wd. be serious blow to R.
Situation in which we talk tough on basis R. is bluffing, we mght have another Brizerta – but with nuclear weapons.
D.S. Recognise weakness of our posn. and base our policy on that recognition.
i) Legal. Only to m’tain troops : access for that. No legal basis for supplying civilians in Berlin.
ii) We have made treaty with W. Germany. Why shdn’t R. do so with East.
iii) Mil. posn. untenable. No way, short of nuclear, of holding Berlin. Don’t threaten what we can’t do. Must convince U.S. of that.
iv) Work for reasonable compromise.
S.Ll. Agree it wd. be mistake to begin in U.N.
Go for interim agreement, in direct negotn with R. Aim at 5 p.m.
Can’t get it unless we make advance on our posn. 2 yrs. ago : for we have gained those 2 yrs.
Limitn. of forces. Supervision in W. Berlin – offer something like Free City or regime leading to it. Access : reorganise D.D.R. de facto and let them manage access. Somethg. on E. frontier.
Chance of R. agreement on these lines if G. cd. be persuaded.
H. Yes : that sort of package + U.N. presence.
M. D.D.R. has bn. State for 15 yrs. : Berlin its capital. Favour negotn.
I.M. Agree. Element of bluff in our posn. N. weapons means there is element of bluff in all such situations. There is bluff on both sides.
Don’t chuck this card away too soon. It mght detach U.S. – who might act even less responsibly alone.
On this point I think D.S. goes too far.
H.W. Support H.’s approach. But to succeed, he can’t show this hand too soon. U.S. v. sensitive & mght. easily go back to earlier rigid line.
At present : 3.2 b. dollars extra votes : raising 6 more divns. bringing divns. in Eur. up to U.C. 70 strength. U.S. understand we are more over burdened in N.A.T.O. contn. than any. But they wd. like us to bring B.A.O.R. up to U.C. level (another 6.000 to 8.000) & also keep in strat reserve in U.K. somethg. like a divn.
Our mil. posn. is not strong. Cd. get ¼ m. men for T.A. on war emergency. But U.S. are now looking at it as long-term problem & are not calling up reservists. Good for us politically but not militarily because we can’t add to Regular strengths.
We can make some minor adjustments in B.A.O.R. Token re-inforcemt. by thunderbird regt. No more : can’t provide the 5.000. On strat. reserve, we cd. thin out in Gulf & E. Africa & claim we had 2 brigades available in U.K.
This is about as far as we cd. go w’out re-introducg. N. Service.
To match U.S. requirement properly on long term basis we shd. have to put in selection service.
R.A.B. Not enough troops in U.K. to meet civil emergency.
N.B. State of preparations – not delayed by lack of powers.
K. Public opinion. i) No war for Berlin alone. ii) But if demonstrated tht. this is part of R. plan for world domination, people wd. be ready to die rather than submit to it. iii) Handicap : feeling that U.S. are rash and brash over this.
Support H.’s memo.
D.E. Why shdn’t D.D.R. be recognised. Support Hail. on this.
P.T. Both sides playing from weakness – makes it more dangerous.
Para.12(a) seems crucial.
H. Nothg. so far (includg. Mr. K.’s statement) has upset K. or made him more likely to act before G. elections. He believes he can then get a better deal. Want to convince U.S. tht. nothg. shd. be done to provoke K.
C.S. x/ Flow of refugees must madden R. No hope of agreement if it doesn’t include some redn. of that.
Reinforcement. B.A.O.R. well below even peace time strength across board. 3 A.A. regts. doesn’t help that. 2.000 men, but wrong ones. Doesn’t improve efficiency of Army. In 12 mos. B.A.O.R. will run down to little more than 40.000 : how can you increase their strength for a long haul.
H.W. Agree – A.A. regts. wd. be no more than gesture. But as such it wd. be some help to U.S. [Fr. are bringing 2 divns. back fr. Africa. G. may increase length of service after Election.] B.A.O.R. will fall to 48.000. But if it is to be kept to 55.000 & 2 brigades were to be in reserve, we wd. have to have limited N.S.
Hail. Radical change of policy needed. We are planning for peace condns. but we face war condns. – not in Berlin only, but Laos etc.
H. x/ is a diffy. : we have bn. using our air lift (returning empty) to bring refugees out. But, on my package plan, stream of refugees wd. lessen.
P.M. We shd. not call up reservists, have Prodn, or embody T.A.
Shd. we, as gesture, send A.A. regt.? (Cost of 3 regts. in D’mark £1¼ m.)
H.W. My proposal : merely to send one SAGN regt.
P.M. Don’t go further than promise it to U.S. : don’t do it yet.
Let 3 fighter squadrons stay w’out decn. on return date.
Bring some troops back – from Kenya & prs. H. Kong. M/D. to consider : 2 or 3 units. H.W. to submit plans to Def. Cttee.
H.W. Also ask Cassels for his minor proposals to strengthen his posn.
P.M. Over-riding aim : settlement by negotn. Must involve give and take.
More dramatic the posture in advance, the greater the risk of dipl. defeat. V. gt. risks : for don’t think any U.K. Govt. would fight for Berlin. Problem therefore is how to induce U.S. to be sensible.
Mr. K. was shaken by his talk with K. – for he produced no effect.
They are gradually coming round.
W. Germany have no intention of fighting.
Risk : they all will try to get out of it on our backs.
3 courses. i) Negotiate before G. elections. Unwise for reasons given.
ii) Do nothing. Signature of treaty is not casus belli Wait until D.D.R. restrict access. Tho’ we have no legal right to ensure civilian supplies to W. Berlin. Objn. : long delay won’t suit us : dealings with D.D.R. wd. damage our case.
iii) Try for negotiations soon after G. election.
H. Diffy. (over iii) is that Mr. K. mayn’t be able to get out of his defiant stance without putting it to U.N. before direct negotiations start.
P.M. Still : we may have to suggest ourselves direct negotiations. May have to propose it after 15/9 – initial mtg. of For. Ministers followed by mtg. of Heads of Govts. Don’t need to do that now. But we shan’t be able (qua. Br. opinion) to allow things to drift indefinitely.
3. Air Corporations : M/East Airlines.
P.T. BOAC have invested in companies overseas. Losing a lot on them - £2 m. last year. Biggest loser (£100.000 p. month) : M/E. Airways.
Early ’61 they wanted to put more money in : we declined.
They now have offer from a Lebanese – bad offer : £3.6 m. against investment of about £8 m. : giving loss of £5.6 m. out of £15m. investment & guarantees. Only £200.000 in cash & the rest insecurely on aircraft etc.
If we stay in, we shall go on losing at current rate or worse.
My advice : cut our losses and get out.
Will emerge in autumn when BOAC will have to disclose.
Shall get independent man to look into this and report privately.
D.S. How shall we fare on feeding in to our lines?
P.T. No reason to believe we shall be much worse off.
M. Get out. 49% holding gives no control over efficiency.
Agreed. Announce during recess.