|P.M. Can’t deprive ourselves of this export opportunity because of African sentiment.
H.W. Will report & circulate final list.
K. As in memo.
Difference of view on one point – wthr. Foncha shd. be encouraged to apply for extension of trusteeship because of our bad internatl. posture if chaos occurred after our 40 years in territory.
I.M. 6(a) and (b) – already authorised.
Never before had chaos on independent in Br. territory. This is fault of U.N., not ours. Even so, we have bn. trustees : large Br. investment : we shall be blamed, as Fr. were for Guinea. Can’t press this view : diffies. of remaining are even more intractable.
Tel. suggesting 120 Cameroonian ex Servicemen in territory cd. be
x/. trained by Gr. Guards. This shd. be considered urgently : it might help. Trusteeship Council is sitting until 20/7 : but decn. is by G. Assembly & cd. be reversed only by them.
P.M. No parallel with Guinea : we are ordered out by U.N. Can be criticised for lack of native adminn. : but main blame is with U.N.
We shd. be in much greater trouble if we started to back Mr. F. against Mr. A. May be more hope of F. & A. agreeing if we aren’t there.
Memo. approved : no approach to U.N. for renewal of trusteeship.
J.P. Mil. operation. My advisers favour it. I think it may arouse terrorist activity throughout territory. Some casualties.
May be occasion for being asked, after all, to stay.
Hail. Dishonourable to leave w’out clearing this up.
J.P. Camp is in bush, near frontier. Not the only enemy cache tho’ largest.
This operation wd. involve decln. of emergency – first time.
I.M. Foncha : Commr. have asked military to do this.
H.B. People on the spot think this shd. be done : we shdn’t counter-order it.
Agreed : allow the mil. operation to proceed.
On this basis of raiding operation (5 yrs. for War and
C.I.G.S. to approve instructions.
x/ above – approved.
No encouragement to Mr. F. to apply for extension
6. Tourism. [Enter Leburn : Rippon.
S.L.I. Para.7 is enough of a concession.
Ch.H. Won’t press this : tho’ shortage of rooms, esp. outside Ldn., is a serious limiting factor on tourism.
Ch.H. Earnings from tourism (£188 m.) are rising more slowly than in Europe.
Only change involved is tht. motoring organisations won’t guarantee payment of duties if cars aren’t removed. We shall still know what cars remain. Payment made now is only £10.000.
Only country in Europe which now continues carnet. – tho’ risks on land-frontier are larger. I can find no evidence of losses by Denmark – who have in fact now extended their system to lorries etc. Assured that Holland & France have suffered no loss. Motoring assocns., not having to do this for any other country, are making it more awkward and expensive to get carnets for U.K. This is therefore a serious discouragement to travellers.
S.L.I. I don’t believe this can be deterrent, cpd. with other formalities.
Alternative check will need to be devised. Customs believe this will open the way to a racket. Exists already over N. Ireland frontier.
R.M. Hope S.L.I. will agree.
Agreed : abolish carnet system, provided special arrangements can be made for N.I. frontier.
c) Carnet : Aircraft.
S.L.I. No case for unilateral action on this.
R.A.B. Leave it at cars, pro.tem.
S.L.I. Ready to accept any international conference in July.
d) Camping in National Parks.
H.B. Accept first recommn.
But no point in discn. with L.C.C. – no land there.
Parks : best sites wd. be just outside, not w’in, Parks.
Otherwise : ready to co-operate over remainder of field.
7. Germany : Defence Facilities in U.K.
H.W. Can’t be done w’out order.
R.A.B. No. Parly. time.
H.W. Can we try to get it on nod, in consultn. with opposition.
M.R. Oppn. Front Bench cdn’t prevent back bench trouble.
R.A.B. Will try – after 10 p.m.
C.C.36(61) 30th June 1961
Economic Situation. [Enter B-C., R.W., P.M.G.,
P.M. Gravity of situation. Need for non-Departmental approach. Secrecy.
S.L.I. Statistical posn. on reserves – current & prospectives. Debt to central Banks (£400 m.) Reserve by end ’61 wd. be down to £250 m. We cd. draw £500 m. from F.M. But estimated further fall of £300 m. or so next year. This assumes no further outflow of volatile sterling Banks in own interest, are determined to help. They accept that, if £ went dollar wd. follow. But, unless long term trend adjusted this wd. merely increase in indebtedness.
Devaluation must be discarded – lasting damage : break up of st. area.
On that line, most we cd. do wd. be to let it float : tho’ that wd. be highly awkward. I. Oversea expenditure.
We must now recognise we shan’t get exports to cover oversea expendre. of £500 m. + outflow of capital. 1958 was £350 only : 1962 likely to be £500. Want to say we will hold it to £400 m. as fixed limit.
i) Germany. £75 m. in N.A.T.O. area. We must say (not soon because
of Berlin) we wdn’t pay more than £25 m. across exchanges. (P.M. May not be that formula).
H.W. I wd. prefer a changed military strategy. That wd. not be hopeless.
S.L.I.. ii) Mil. expre. elsewhere.
iii) Aid. Colonies £83. C.D.C. £19 m. Doms. £55. Foreign £13. U.N. Fund £6. 1 DA £4. Total 180 m. 44 tied, the rest is not : tho’ most
spent in U.K.
Propose to fix £180 m. as ceiling for next year.
iv) Misc. £48 m. (not 43). Pensions can’t be touched : but %age cut over the rest.
I.M. Remember that much “aid” is sledged – eg. compensation to O.C.S.
H. %age cut in reln. to Embassies means re-organising – combining 2 into 1 or cutting out repve.
S.L.I.. Powers exist : but adm. machinery wd. need to be re-created. Wd. take 2 months and wd. provoke fore-stalling.
Moreover, wd. inflation be helped by reducing available good.
Cdn’t extend to food, w’out rationing.
R.A.B. Think we shd. have this.
M. Undesirable imports - luxuries. Weapons.
H.W. Presentationally : we shd. seem to be doing something.
D.E. Only practical way now is floating rate. Otherwise, forestalling.
S.L.I. Inexpedient to cut save on next travel year.
Saving of £20 m. in full year if cut to £50 p.a.
S.L.I. Must indicate greater discipline here. Gt. diffies. But must have some restriction.
Remittance of profits. No compulsion : scope for exhortation.
Might explore possibility tht. if returned here, profits wd. be taxed only if distributed.
D.E. If you restrict export of fresh capital, you will encourage them not to remit profits – for they will want to leave their profits in the oversea country against need to expand their business.
Hail. At least, we still have the machinery of control.
S.L.I. Only outside st. area. Don’t propose to extend it. Mght get some vol. co-opn. on this.
M. Unless you discourage it, it will increase – eg. Unilever in Nigeria.
S.L.I. Shipping earnings dropped by £40 m. Hard to see how we can give substantial help.
E.M. My Dpt. shd. do more. We can afford to discriminate, now we are a net importer of shipping. Am considering whch countries are best candidates for retaliation.
Also, consider condn. tht. aid shd. go in B.ships.
II. Reduction of House Demand.
S.L.I. Consumption likely to rise by £400 m. – 4%.
Long term : C(61) 88. Must refer to this in statement & better to give examples (para.19).
V. hard even to hold expendre. at 42.5% of G.D.P.
Avoid promising impossible.
Public Investment. P’mmes have gathered momentum, & spending has overtaken estimates. Adjustments shd. fit in with long-term p’mme.
Bank rate. Wd. be sign of weakness abroad.
H.Purchase. Wd. hit industries wh. are not over loaded.
Bank advances. Rising steeply again. Must be checked.
Capital Issues . More harm than good to confidence.
M/M.R. Wd. not work anyway.
Wages and Salaries. No more to say.
H. Economic Growth. This, surely, is where Govt. have failed. Tax incentives for exports?
M. Wages surely in Kermil. We can’t accept 6-7% round of increases.
S.L.I. Agree. We must take a stand : and create climate/opinion.
P.M. Public Sector. Direct employers : we are limited by arbitration.
Indirect : l.a. employer : can Govt. recover control?
Natd. industries : we can influence and cd. do more.
Employers in private sector wd. be encouraged if we were seen to be standing firm in public sector.
But must also create economic climate, in wh. demand is falling – so that boom condns. are averted.
K. Empty chair : national inerest not prepd. in wage negotiations.
Coppi failed. We shd. seek another & more effective means.
I.M. An ounce of action is worth a ton of exhortation.
Bus strike : N.HS. clerks : had a real impact.
Empty chair can’t be filled.
What we need is a good example tht. Govt. will stand firm.
Hail. Can you in fact hold wages when there are more jobs than applicants.
E.M. No harm in increased wages if increase in productivity too.
But look at shipbldg : we aren’t competing even v. countries with higher wages eg. Sweden & Germany.
H.B. Low standard of management in U.K.
S.L.I. On any package, 1st regulator must be used – prob. to full extent.
1.5 points on c/l. index.
Earliest date for passage of Fin. Bill = 19/vii. Earliest date for statement wd. be 20/vii.
D.E. V. near to worst collapse of £.
Must therefore select measures obviously designed to protect £. B/p. must be criterion. Doubt if we can get thro’ w’out floating rate.
Cdn’t afford to do that unless seen to be taking drastic action.
Must reduce dom. demand savagely : attack consumption : appear to discriminate in favour of productive techniques. If we are paying too much wages, we must seem to be doing all possible on that. P. sector cd. give example. Appalling size of public emplt. Say only 1% p.a. increase in public salaries over 2-3 years.
Teachers : we are too far down the road to do much. If 2 sides agree on 16%, I cd. reject it : insist on £575 at outset : awful row.
Strengthen Budget surplus. 1st regulator. Need as near £1.000 m. surplus as we can.
Policy of cuts for sake of b/p. won’t be understood. Must find an appeal – if people are to go on working. Are there things for wh. people wd. pay increased taxation – i) law & order ii) most of education p’mme iii) aid to oversea countries. Wd. give room for bigger cuts in other directions. Wages & salaries = crux. More chance of responsibility there if b/p. crisis can be brought home, as floating rate would do.
Agriculture. Ty. proposal is wrong. Doesn’t follow that workers wd. move into exporting industries.
C.S. Must re-arrange support system – transfer burden to consumer.
But Ty. propose ceiling for subsidies. Cause of rise : increased prodn. : falling world prices because of surpluses.
Ty. plan wd. mean 20% drop in farm increase and no increase in food prices.
P.M. Only immediate action = anti-dumping order.
R.M. Barley. Dumping by R. and others. Must make anti-dumping order early next week : in spite of effect in R. trade fair.
Hail. Lack of powers. Shall have to re-enact. Take this chance.
Keep Parlt. sitting in Aug. to pass a Bill.
R.M. But only relevant power would be control of wages and salaries!
Don’t exaggerate sitn. – wealth depends on industry not finance.
Favour floating rate. Wd. suit our economy.
Gap under discn. is w’in rate of increase in nat. income.
Slow deterioration in our competitive power is real cause.
Fr. cured that by devaluation, increased competitive climate for industry & firm stand on wages. We shd. do the same.
G.R. What is to be said. Worst example to give wd. be supersonic aircraft.
We commissioned report (£1 m.) : stupid not to wait for it.
J.M. Support R.M.
Deptl. diffies. : agric : recruitment of teachers.
P.M. Overseas mil. expre. Awkward tht. Alliances are separate : each is selfish : N.A.T.O. disregards what we are spending elsewhere.
H. Ruler has given written request for support.
U.S. have promised moral support.
Oppn. warned : hoped we shall have some Arabs with us.
P.M. Awkward timing : if we go in, Q. cd. refrain from attacking & then seize Iraq oil fields.
Def. Cttee. will consider.
1. (resumed) Economic Situation.
H. Public announcement re £25 m. in G. wd. destroy our influence over Berlin crisis. Cd. be pest to N.A. Council.
P.M. What then are we to say?
H.W. N.A.T.O. pool won’t work for us : we are getting more in dollars than we spend in G.
W.E.U. Treaty : cd. we abrogate that?
Given time we might save £40 m. or more outside G. W’in G. only course is to press G. to pay.
S.L.I. We can go to N.A.T.O. under W.E.U. Treaty, because of b/p. diffies.
P.M. Cd. we say : we will stand thro’ autumn & winter crisis over Berlin : but we give notice tht. from Apl 62 we shan’t pay this over exchanges. Shall seek relief, under terms of W.E.U. Treaty.
Must have some public statement end/July to steady confidence.
C.C.38(61) 3rd July 1961
1. Kuwait. [Enter M.R., J.A., C.
P.M. Mtgs. of Ministers Friday afternoon and evening.
Indications tht. Iraqis cd. have moved. We decided to put our forces in and to anticipate such a move.
Diffies. v overflying. Turks at first declined – have now agreed. Short cuts over Sudan & Saudi Arabia.
Fri. & Sat. nights were critical. We are now there in sufft. force to cope with any initial attack.
State of forces – on each side. We are now evenly matched. The last 3 days was their opportunity, which they have not seized.
Saudi paratroops are coming in to Kuwait.
Believe they were planning coup for 12/7 : our decln. forestalled that – we are in better posn. now of defending independent country.
No hostile action in Baghdad. We shd. do nothg. to stimulate active opposition. How we extricate ourselves is another matter.
H. Iraq will be reluctant to mount attack while Sec. Council debate is going on. But he may : for he is mad.
Diffy. over future. U.N. intervention – a force : what shd. its composn. be.
M’while, we shall have to stay there.
R. response : we are imperialists seizing chance to get back.
On other hand, Ch. have sent congrats. on independence.
P.M. Tels. to Doms. Response satisfactory. Also U.S. solid.
C.S. M.?.6.’s are a threat. H.W. Victorious will bring strikes aircraft & we are getting more frigates in.
P.M. U.S. offer v. naval force. We are declining : more risk of escalating up. Tho’ if things got worse they wd. prob. produce their 2 destroyers.
H.W. Condns. for troops – will have to rotate, if we have stay for long.
C.C.39(41) 6th July 1961
1. Parliament. [Enter M.R.
R.A.B. Business for next week.
H. Indicns. : Qassim unlikely to attack. Pol. pressures mounting for our w’drawal, incldg. local pressures. Feeling in Sec. Council is not bad : we mght. get sub Cttees. to consider what kind of force needed to guarantee K.s independence.
H.W. Morale of our troops is good. No. of heat casualties.
Asked C.-in-C. to prepare plan for partial w’drawal to Bahrain.
Aim : leave 1 battn. in K., if Ruler will keep his forces up to strength and stockpile arms.
S.L.I. Don’t let Ruler build his forces up further : danger of revolution by its commander. Stockpile with our key to cupboard.
H. Princes to meet again in 2 wks. They may shrink from responsibility of forming national Govt. U.S. influencing Phonmi against joining Phonma because he is too much under Comm. influence. True tht. Communists aren’t playing the game.
Must try to keep Confce. going – tho’ it is v. difficult.
H. Replies to Soviet notes about to be sent.
R.A.B. Public attitude must be firm : private based on commonsense.
Complications of true posn. are not understood.
5. Nuclear Merchant Ship.
M. Capital & running costs much greater than conventional tanker.
All agree we shd. not proceed with a ship. But Dpts. want to continue r&d – Admy. concurring. Otherwise, as in memo.
S.L.I. A.E.A. proposals for continuing research include only £150.000 p.a. on marine propulsion. They therefore give it low priority. I wd. like a little longer to judge : cd. decide some time later in July after consultn. with M/Science.
E.M. Can I promise statement before recess – in a debate this week?
P.M. Clear we shd. not build a ship, yet.
6. Local Government : London.
H.B. Local govt. in Ldn. is not healthy. R. Commn. criticisms are sound.
Problem not merely size of unit for jobs, but also lack of life in the personnel etc. of l. govt. in the area.
Legn. not until 1962/3. Early statement needed because uncertainty – affecting senior appointments of l.g. officials. All falls into place administratively if we can settle size of boros. They must have reality – theirs is main job. R.C. recommended 50.
Ready to agree 100,000 is too low a limit : 200/250.000 may well be wiser – tho’ 100.000 is qualifying no. for co. boro’ outside Ldn. But not larger (1) therefore l.g. becomes too bureaucratic & remote : whole purpose of change in Ldn. is to get away from that (L.C.C. and M’side). (2) Opposn. to new groupings will be v. much stronger if we take larger units of 3-500.000.
Propose therefore accept report in principle : suggest 200.000 as minimum size for boros. with special arrangements for educn. Then no gt. diffy. in drawing memo. which cd. be presented as statement of Govt. policy.
D.E. Educn. requires diff. organisation. Don’t accept R.C. recommn. on educn. wh. contemplated policy with Greater Ldn. Council and execution with boros. can’t have 2 tier basis for education. What then shd. be size of single l.e.a. Educn. tradition in Ldn. is to concentrate on higher educn. in centre because of good travel facilities : few primary schools in centre : & no. of boros wh. ought not to be l.e.a.’s.
I want to produce link betwn. secondary & technical colleges comparable to existg. link betwn. grammar & universities. Campaign going on for this all over country. Cdn’do it in Ldn. w’out larger units.
I therefore propose i) central Ldn. authority covering about 1½ m. people : a joint Board of the l.e.a.’s ii) joint Bd. l.e.a.’s between H.B.’s 40 or so boros.
I can’t m’tain that L.C.C. is a bad l.c.a. in the top quarter of all l.c.a.’s for efficiency. We must be able to promise results at least as good, from a new system.
R.A.B. What examples of failure of 2 tier system, save ????
D.E. Wilts (Swindon) : Essex (Ilford etc.,) are not good.
H.W. What is feeling among Home Counties?
H.B. They have put up scheme to avoid losing any of their area. But they wd. be quite viable under R.C. plan. And no Dpt. favours Home Counties plan : which contemplates no more than advisory body for greater Ldn. This certainly wdn’t do for transport or for planning.
E.M. Support H.B. Ldn. traffic won’t be managed w’out strong central authy.
Don’t want Dpt. to be that authy.
R.A.B. Accept H.B.’s recommns. Support plan of 40 boroughs. A smaller no. of larger units wd. go away from all existg. boundaries.
Education. More difficult. Joint Bd. basis in Ldn. is 90 years old.
Shd. no central l.g. authy. have some education function? [Or shd. not his Joint Council at least sit with the main authy..] Will it have enough powers w’out education? Cd. it be responsible for educn. in central Ldn.?
D.E. L.C.C. now control 16.000 teachers. The new Ldn. area wd. comprise 43.000 teachers. Wd. give them far too much power and influence.
Readier to look at one unit (1½ m) for educn. at centre of Ldn. where the bulk of the higher education goes on.
H.D. That, however, wd. mean built in Socialist majority on that body.
I.M. On balance, favour accepting Report. But wd. prefer to take 52 units. To go to 40 wd. exacerbate feeling.
Educn. : go for joint Boards on basis of 52 – as one exception from the package deal. But fear tht. powers of G. Ldn. Council won’t be enough w’out educn. : cd. they prs. have higher education.
H.B. 52 or 40 is not fundamental for me.
Don’t think G. Ldn. Council will have too little to do. If it has much more, only retired people or pros. will have time to serve on it. Better to leave it w’out education. Also more acceptable to outlying boros.
E.P. Can do minimum of 200.000. Don’t want it smaller. Hope also we won’t make 250.000 a fixed maximum. Variation in size is valuable.
H.B. Final determination of new boundaries will require further machinery providing opportunities for local opinion to be taken.
Hail. Adminn. chaos of dismantling County Hall as education authy.
K. Impn. from debate in H/L. R.C. report came thro’ well. Little oppn. on behalf of home counties. But heavy opinion v. Commn.’s report on education – dangerous to lose record of achievement of L.C.C. More thought is needed on this.
Ch.H. Youth employment service shd. go along with education.
H.B. Can it be Agreed : 200.000 minimum for boros – 40 in principle : joint board system for educn.
I can then work out a plan.
I.M. Don’t decide against 52 boros.
E.P. I cdn’t defend smaller units involved in 52.
H.B. Don’t want final decision between 40 and 52.
Agreed : Cttee. to consider (Rab in Chair)
7. Covent Garden Market. (Enter Waldegrave.
Agreed : try to put it back on Report. [Exit W.
8. South West Africa.
K. U.N. decided (in abstaining) Cttee. shd. go to S.W. Afr. Union refused visas. Cttee. now want to go to Bechuanaland. There are some people there who came fr. S.W.A. but 40 years ago. We agreed to admit 9 : Union protested : we made it condition they wdn’t enter S.W.A. w’out leave of Union Govt. They are now in Accru : we have asked them for assurance they will abide by condn. They have declined reply : indicns. they will at least create incident on the border. This might provoke disturbances.
Cttee. due to leave Salisb. for Bechuanaland on Saty. Think we can’t give them facilities w’out assurance : must cancel arrangemts. made unless they give it.