Aircraft Ratings example




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Aircraft Ratings



Aircraft Ratings example
Aircraft Ratings bring to light the fundamental trends and relationships in the aircraft market, providing quantitative metrics to support even the most experienced industry veteran. For example, it’s conventional wisdom that in-production aircraft tend to outperform out-of-production aircraft. With the Aircraft Ratings we can rank the Boeing 737-800 against aircraft it replaced, the Boeing 737-400. Where the in-production Boeing 737-800 has low observed depreciation and low value market volatile, the Boeing 737-300 is the opposite – with steep depreciation and increased vulnerability to any demand shock.
Aircraft Ratings also incorporate the benefit of Ascend’s expert opinion. An example is the A340-600. The rating of this aircraft is weaker than the historic data alone would predict as delays to the Boeing 787 and Airbus’s re-design of the A350 coupled with a buoyant market between 2005 and 2008 have supported the value of this aircraft. As these supports diminish, the aircraft production rate is slowing to a stop and the aircraft type is moving into a new more vulnerable trading position.

Ratings

  • Boeing 737-800 has a one-year rating of B3 for a 2003 to 2010 delivery.

  • Boeing 737-300 has a one-year rating of D9 (all deliveries).

  • Airbus A340-600 has a one-year rating of D7 (but pure data analysis would make it a D4).




Depreciation Rating

Description

Examples

A

Aircraft with an A rating have the lowest depreciation rates. Aircraft in this category are usually new and in the first stages of their production cycle with a narrow range of vintages in production.

E195

777-300ER



B – C

Aircraft with a B or a C rating have low to medium depreciation rates. These aircraft are usually established types with good markets but at a more established phase of their production cycle with a wide range of vintages in production.

737-800

A330-300


D – E

Aircraft with a D or an E rating have medium to high depreciation rates. These aircraft are usually either approaching the end of their production cycle; are relatively new but unsuccessful aircraft types; or have shorter expected useful lives.

A318

767-300ER

ATR42-300


F

Aircraft with an F rating have the highest depreciation rates. These aircraft are out of production aircraft that have been out of production for a number of years.

737-300

MD80 family

F100





Volatility Rating

Description

Examples

1 – 2

Aircraft with a 1 or a 2 rating are expected to have the lowest downside volatility. Aircraft in this category are usually new modern aircraft with good user bases but relatively narrow markets.

A321-200

E170


777-300ER

3 – 4

Aircraft with a 3 or a 4 rating have low to medium downside volatility. These aircraft are usually modern technology aircraft with wide user bases but which show more variation in pricing than the aircraft in the 1 – 2 category, often because of the wide user base. They can also be aircraft that have seen high depreciation and consequently are expected to have low downside volatility.

737-800

777-200


5 – 6

Aircraft with a 5 or a 6 rating have medium downside volatility. These are usually aircraft that are either in production but with low volumes or that have just gone out of production. They usually have medium to high depreciation.

777-200ER

737-900


7 – 8

Aircraft with a 7 or an 8 rating have medium to high downside volatility. These are usually out of production aircraft with good user bases and remaining useful life but where the aircraft’s mission has been displaced by newer more efficient technology.

737-500

747-400


CRJ200

9

Aircraft with a 9 rating have high downside volatility. These are usually out of production aircraft that have been out of production for a number of years where the number of aircraft in storage is consistently high and the possibility of finding a new user of the aircraft is small.

737-300

757-300


This report is valid for the date of issue only and has been prepared based on the information, circumstances available to Ascend. This report is not to be made available, referred or copied in whole or in part to any other person without the prior written consent of Ascend. No consideration in this report has been made of the interests and concerns of any third party and Ascend denies any responsibility howsoever arising to any third party that may become privy to or aware of this report.


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